Novo Nordisk enters a critical week with the stock caught between two opposing forces: a fresh regulatory win in India that opens Wegovy to a younger patient group, and the abrupt loss of a prized formulary advantage in the United States that had helped shield the weight-loss franchise from Eli Lilly’s competition. The tug-of-war leaves investors guessing whether upcoming clinical data can tip the scales.
CVS Caremark’s decision to reinstate Eli Lilly’s Zepbound as a preferred option on its standard formulary list—covering 25 million to 30 million Americans—effectively ends Novo Nordisk’s year-long exclusivity arrangement for Wegovy. The reversal, which runs through October 2026, came after Lilly agreed to lower prices for many insurers. CVS had originally restricted Zepbound in July 2025 in exchange for better terms from Novo on Wegovy; that deal has now been scrapped. A separate market-access restriction on Lilly’s oral GLP-1, Foundayo, also lifts on June 1. CVS expects the new setup to generate savings of 10 to 15 percent in the weight-management category—a clear sign that reimbursement pressure is intensifying for Novo.
On the other side of the globe, the Indian drug authority handed Novo a more welcome development, approving Wegovy for adolescents aged twelve and older who weigh more than 60 kilograms, alongside calorie reduction and increased physical activity. The move expands the drug’s profile beyond adults in a market where Lilly’s Mounjaro has outsold Wegovy for injectable products. Crucially, Mounjaro lacks a similar adolescent approval in India, giving Novo a differentiation point that could help defend its GLP-1 franchise. The direct revenue contribution from teenagers alone may not be dramatic, but the strategic signal matters in a country where pricing pressure is mounting.
The stock itself has recovered from its March trough of 30.48 euros to close Friday at 39.05 euros—nearly unchanged on the day but up 13.06 percent over the past 30 days. Still, the broader picture remains fragile: the share price has lost roughly 44 percent from its 52-week high of 70.13 euros and is down 12.59 percent year-to-date, trading 6.89 percent below its 200-day moving average. Analysts reflect the caution. Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Papadakis holds a hold rating with a 290 DKK target, while Citi raised its target to the same level but maintains a neutral stance. Jefferies’ Michael Leuchten also sticks with neutral and a 270 DKK target—below the latest Copenhagen close of 292.95 DKK—and Bernstein remains a seller.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Novo is leaning on its share buyback program to steady the ship. The initiative, launched in May, authorises repurchases of B-shares worth up to 11.2 billion Danish kroner through early February 2027, part of a broader framework of 15 billion kroner. By May 22, the company had bought back 17,049,028 B-shares at an average price of 262.22 DKK, for a total outlay of 4.47 billion DKK. Treasury stock now stands at 34,234,329 B-shares, equivalent to 0.8 percent of total equity capital. The buybacks provide a floor but do not substitute for organic growth.
Medical data is next in the spotlight. At the American Diabetes Association annual meeting in New Orleans from June 5 to 8, Novo Nordisk will present phase 3 results from the REIMAGINE 1, 2 and 3 trials of CagriSema, a combination of an amylin receptor agonist and a GLP-1 receptor agonist. Interim data on Zenagamtide—formerly known as Amycretin—for overweight or type 2 diabetes patients, in both oral and subcutaneous forms, will also be disclosed. The REDEFINE-1 study had already shown that 91.9 percent of CagriSema participants achieved at least a five percent weight reduction, versus 31.5 percent on placebo. The US Food and Drug Administration is reviewing a marketing application for CagriSema this year. Novo will hold an R&D investor day on June 7, accessible via webcast.
Beyond the pipeline, the company’s underlying business faces headwinds. In the first quarter, adjusted revenues excluding a special 340B effect fell 4 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, even as obesity medicine sales climbed 22 percent. Management’s 2026 guidance calls for a currency-adjusted decline of 4 to 12 percent in both adjusted revenue and operating profit. A separate observational study, POSEIDON, covering 18,904 patients across 18 countries, underscored the broader challenge: cardiovascular inflammation remains widespread despite standard therapy, and among those with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, two in five had hsCRP readings of 2 mg/L or higher.
For Novo Nordisk, the coming days may determine whether the strength of its pipeline and the expansion of Wegovy’s global reach can outweigh the commercial squeeze in its largest market. The India approval improves the product story, and CagriSema data could reinforce the medical narrative, but the CVS reversal is a stark reminder that pricing and formulary access are reshaping the weight-loss battlefield. Investors are watching for evidence that volume growth, new indications and buybacks can outrun the margin compression that has kept the stock well below its peak.
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