Deutsche Telekom is widening its fibre footprint in northern Germany without laying a single cable itself, yet the stock’s recent technical breakout is already losing conviction. The Bonn-based group signed an open-access agreement with regional operators WEMACOM and e.discom, bringing roughly 220,000 homes across Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg into its marketing reach. On Thursday, however, the shares slipped 1.73 percent to €29.02, falling back below the closely watched 200-day moving average after a brief climb above it a day earlier.
The cooperation adds to a growing list of wholesale partnerships for Telekom, which now works with more than 50 companies on fibre rollouts nationwide. Under the deal, around 80,000 households on e.discom’s network can immediately order Telekom’s fibre tariffs, while WEMACOM’s approximately 140,000 connections will become available from the end of 2026. Both networks were built primarily with state subsidies and cover rural areas in the two north-eastern states. The new agreements push the total number of fibre-addressable households in the region past the one-million mark.
Technical crack appears
The share’s slide on Thursday follows a promising session on Wednesday when the price moved above both the 200-day and the 38-day moving averages — signals that normally attract momentum-driven buyers. That rally has since been dented. At €29.02, the stock now trades below the 100-day average of €29.95 and just under the long-term trend line at €29.14. The relative strength index of roughly 75 points to an overheated short-term reading, leaving the chart vulnerable to further pullback unless fresh buying emerges quickly.
Over the past 30 days, Telekom’s shares still show a gain of 8.54 percent, and the year-to-date advance sits at roughly 4 percent. But the failed test of the 200-day line — a level regarded as a proxy for the broader trend — makes the near-term picture messier. The stock remains about 14.5 percent below its 52-week high near €34.
Revenue momentum intact beneath the surface
Operationally, the first quarter provided few reasons for concern. Telekom booked an organic revenue increase of 4.7 percent to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA AL rose 7.5 percent organically to €11.5 billion. Net income slipped to €2.0 billion, partly due to one-off items in the prior-year period. Management left its full-year outlook unchanged after lifting it on 13 May: the group now targets roughly €47.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA AL and free cash flow above €19.8 billion.
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The main driver behind the raised guidance remains T-Mobile US, which has upgraded its own forecasts. Analysts currently expect 2026 earnings per share of €2.21, and the dividend estimate stands at €1.13 per share — up from €1.00 for the previous year. The average price target among covering analysts is €38.56, implying significant upside from current levels.
Turning coverage into contracts
For the fibre business, the real metric is conversion. At the end of the first quarter, Telekom counted 2.2 million fibre-to-the-home customers out of 13 million connectable households — a take-up rate of 17.1 percent, up from 15.5 percent a year earlier. The new wholesale partnerships are designed to plug the gap left by the ongoing decline of copper-based broadband connections, translating expanded coverage into incremental subscriptions.
The network build itself remains aggressive. In April alone, Telekom claims to have deployed 209,000 new fibre connections, a 42 percent year-on-year jump. It also activated 81 new mobile sites and upgraded capacity at 548 others. 5G household coverage stands at around 99 percent, with LTE near-total. The company notes annual data traffic growth of roughly 30 percent, driven in part by AI applications, underscoring the need for continuous investment in network quality.
What to watch next
The new cooperation supplies an operational building block but no immediate earnings lift. The decisive figure will be how many of those 220,000 potential fibre households actually become paying customers. Telekom’s first-half results, due in August, should offer the next clear read on that conversion trajectory. In the meantime, investors will watch whether the shares can reclaim the 200-day moving average — a swift return would preserve the credibility of the technical breakout, while a prolonged stay below it risks a false-signal narrative despite the solid underlying business trends.
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