The stars are aligning for AST SpaceMobile, but the constellation is hardly without shadows. Within days of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granting the company permission to offer satellite-based mobile services for standard smartphones across America, the stock had already surged 78% in a ten-session march — only to give back some ground on Thursday. The shares last changed hands at €107.40 on Xetra, a 3.4% decline from the prior day’s touch of a 52-week high at €111.20.
That high came just as a parallel tailwind swept through the entire space sector: SpaceX’s initial public offering prospectus, published on May 20, gave investors their first detailed look at the private behemoth’s finances and pegged its total addressable market at a staggering $28.5 trillion, spanning transport, communications, defense and orbital infrastructure. The ripple effect was immediate. Aerospace exchange-traded funds have gained more than 7% since the filing, and analysts argue the listing will draw generalist capital into a corner of the market that had been shunned for its high volatility and low liquidity.
Commercial launch, lumpy start
The FCC green light is the pivotal commercial catalyst for AST. With AT&T and Verizon already on board as network partners, the company can now start generating revenue from its direct-to-smartphone service in the United States. More than 60 mobile operators worldwide — collectively serving over three billion subscribers — are also in the fold. Against that bullish backdrop, management has stood by its 2026 revenue forecast of $150 million to $200 million, underpinned by a backlog exceeding $1.2 billion. A cash pile of roughly $3.5 billion provides ample runway.
But the first quarter of 2026 told a less cheerful story. Revenue came in at $14.73 million, undershooting expectations by more than 60%, while the per-share loss of $0.66 was three times worse than the $0.21 deficit analysts had penciled in. The company blamed delays in government contracts and the build-out of ground stations. The three largest U.S. carriers — AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon — have since announced a joint venture dedicated to satellite-to-phone connectivity, a potential distribution channel that could accelerate AST’s path to scale, but the quarterly numbers highlight how early-stage execution remains bumpy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AST SpaceMobile?
Insider takes profit at the peak
Timing is everything, and AST’s president, Scott Wisniewski, picked the rally’s apex to lighten his position. He sold 25,904 shares at an average price of $126.64, collecting around $3.28 million. The transaction follows a larger sale in mid-March, when he unloaded 47,000 shares for $4.45 million. After both disposals, Wisniewski still holds 745,973 shares, worth roughly $94.5 million at current levels. Insider sales are often read as a cautionary signal, though tax planning or personal liquidity needs can be equally plausible motives – and the volume here is modest relative to his total stake.
Three more birds, one rocket
The operational pipeline, meanwhile, is moving forward. Three BlueBird satellites — numbers 8, 9 and 10 — are scheduled to launch in June aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. BlueBird 9 has already arrived at Cape Canaveral for integration. The goal is to have up to 45 satellites in orbit by the end of next year, with roughly one launch per month. The loss of BlueBird 7 in a third-party launch failure earlier this year serves as a reminder that space remains a risky business.
Heated market, cool analyst consensus
The stock’s year-to-date gain now exceeds 405%, pushing it far above its major moving averages — the 50-day line at €74.74 and the 200-day at €66.77. The relative strength index on Xetra stands at 53.6, suggesting the rally has cooled from its most extreme levels, though the same indicator in U.S. trading reached above 77. Speculative flows have added fuel: Defiance ETFs listed the Daily Target 2X Long ASTS Fund (ASTY) on May 21, a leveraged single-stock product that amplifies daily moves. Trading volume hit 36.4 million shares on May 27, well above the 26.7 million daily average.
Yet the analyst community remains distinctly measured. The average 12-month price target sits at $83.47, with the highest at $117. Of the handful of ratings, three are buys and two are sells, yielding a consensus of “neutral.” The gap between market enthusiasm and Wall Street’s arithmetic is wide, and whether it narrows through a correction or a validation of the story will depend on the satellite roll-out. The next test on the charts lies in the €93 to €100 support zone — a zone that will either absorb the pullback or confirm that the recent rocket ride was a bit too fast for gravity.
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