Japan’s Nomura Holdings has crossed the 3% disclosure threshold at Commerzbank, injecting fresh institutional heft into the German lender’s battle to stay independent. The voting rights notification, filed on 27 May 2026, places the Tokyo-based financial heavyweight alongside BlackRock among the bank’s major institutional holders. Commerzbank shares currently trade at €36.30, roughly 4% below their 52-week high of €37.75, but have still climbed nearly 37% over the past twelve months — a rally that underscores the growing appetite among long-term investors.
The timing of Nomura’s entry is no coincidence. Just a day earlier, on 26 May, Commerzbank paid out a record €1.10 per share in dividends, part of a €2.7bn capital return programme that includes €1.5bn in share buybacks already completed. That payout effectively distributes the entirety of the bank’s adjusted net profit for 2025, making it the largest capital return in the company’s history. Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp is using the aggressive distribution policy as a direct counter to UniCredit’s exchange offer, betting that shareholders who have just received such a generous cash return will have little incentive to swap their stock for Italian shares.
The operational numbers back up Orlopp’s stand-alone narrative. In the first quarter of 2026, Commerzbank posted a record operating profit of €1.4bn, with net income rising 9% to €913 million. Fee and commission income hit an all-time high of €1.1bn, while the cost-income ratio improved to 53%. On the back of that performance, management raised its full-year 2026 profit target to at least €3.4bn. The longer-term strategy, dubbed “Momentum 2030,” targets a return on equity of 21% and a cost-income ratio of 43% by the end of the decade, with a payout ratio of 100% of adjusted net income also planned for 2027 and 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
UniCredit, which now holds nearly 39% of Commerzbank, is offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share — a proposal that the German board has urged shareholders to reject. Analysts appear to side with the defence: the median price target on Commerzbank stock stands at €41.50, with Barclays reiterating an “Overweight” rating and a €42 target. The relative strength index of 71 points to recent buying momentum, though the shares remain below their 2026 peak.
The annual general meeting on 20 May provided a further show of support for Orlopp’s strategy. Shareholders approved every agenda item with over 99% of the vote, including authorisation for additional buybacks of up to 10% of share capital. That mandate gives the board flexibility to continue the payout story well into 2027, regardless of how the UniCredit saga unfolds.
The decisive moment comes on 16 June 2026, when the acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer expires. By then, the combination of a record dividend, a rising institutional base, and ambitious medium-term targets will have made the case for independence — or exposed how much more convincing is needed.
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