Voestalpine ended Monday’s session 2.91% higher at €47.36, riding a broader rally that pushed Austria’s benchmark ATX to a fresh all‑time high of 6,148 points. The 2.77% jump in the index was fuelled by a supportive European backdrop, positive cues from Asia, a noticeable drop in oil prices, and renewed hope of de‑escalation in the Iran conflict. With US markets closed for a holiday and corporate news thin on the ground, the Vienna bourse was driven almost entirely by macro sentiment.
The steel and industrial conglomerate was a solid contributor to the ATX’s advance, though it lagged the day’s star performers — AT&S surged more than 10%, Bajaj Mobility climbed 7.4% and DO & CO added 5.4%. Voestalpine’s gain reflected a broad risk‑on mood rather than any company‑specific catalyst. But by Tuesday, a modest profit‑taking move had set in, with the stock easing 0.51% to €47.12.
That pullback does little to alter the stock’s extraordinary twelve‑month trajectory. From a 52‑week low of €22.20 in June last year, Voestalpine has more than doubled, posting a gain of roughly 100%. Yet the rally has pushed the relative strength index to 82.4 — firmly into overbought territory and signalling that a technical correction could be overdue.
Deutsche Bank stays bullish ahead of annual report
The coming days offer a potential catalyst capable of overriding short‑term technical concerns. Voestalpine is scheduled to publish its full‑year results for fiscal 2025/26 on June 3, and analysts at Deutsche Bank are expecting a strong finish to the financial year. Bastian Synagowitz and Liam Fitzpatrick forecast a robust fourth quarter, particularly from the Steel and Metal Engineering divisions, where they anticipate high cash generation and a meaningful year‑on‑year increase in EBITDA.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?
Management has guided for full‑year EBITDA of between €1.4 billion and €1.55 billion. The first nine months already produced free cash flow of €344.5 million, achieved despite heavy investment in decarbonisation projects. Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation with a €57 price target, implying upside of roughly 20% from current levels. The analysts have made only minor adjustments to their earnings per share estimates: €2.19 for the year just ended (previously €2.22), €3.87 for 2026/27 (down from €3.93) and €5.62 for 2027/28 (up from €5.60). The long‑term trajectory, in other words, edges higher.
Geopolitical crosswinds remain
The positive tailwind from lower oil prices and fading war risk that lifted Voestalpine on Monday is fragile. While Tehran reported progress in nuclear talks, President Trump dampened expectations of a swift resolution. For a cyclical name such as Voestalpine, any reversal in the geopolitical climate would hit quickly, as investors rotate out of risk‑sensitive industrial metals first.
With the shares trading just a few euros below the 52‑week high of €49.10, the June 3 earnings report will test whether fundamental momentum can sustain a valuation that technical indicators already flag as stretched. The outcome of the Iran negotiations — and the direction of oil prices — will determine how long the risk appetite that propelled the ATX to a record holds.
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