BASF’s shares have rallied roughly 18% since the start of the year, yet the stock keeps bumping against a stubborn resistance level near €55. That technical barrier persists even as the German chemicals giant delivers early savings beyond its own targets, draws insider purchases from the top floor, and wins a fresh price target lift from DZ Bank.
The reluctance stems partly from a dimming external backdrop. Escalating conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, squeezing an energy-intensive business. Market observers now suspect the macroeconomic assumptions BASF built into its February forecast may have been overly optimistic.
Inside the company, however, the restructuring engine is running ahead of schedule. By the end of 2025, management had already saved around €1.7 billion, slightly more than originally planned. For the current year the bar goes higher: annual cost reductions are expected to reach €2.3 billion by the end of 2026. BASF is shifting functions to India and Malaysia and trimming capital spending by a fifth through the rest of the decade. The main Ludwigshafen site will avoid further major plant closures, but headcount reductions will continue through 2026.
The operational turnaround delivered solid first-quarter numbers even as revenues slipped. Currency headwinds from the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi dragged group sales down to roughly €16 billion. The operating result (EBIT) still climbed to €1.26 billion, while earnings before special items held broadly steady at €2.4 billion. China supported volume growth, though the profit picture echoed a wider Dax pattern of shrinking turnover alongside rising profits.
Confidence at the very top showed up in recent stock purchases. Three senior executives – CFO Dirk Elvermann, board member Katja Scharpwinkel, and supervisory board member Kurt Bock – collectively invested nearly €380,000 in BASF shares.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
Analyst opinion remains divided. DZ Bank reiterated its “buy” rating and lifted the fair-value target from €55 to €63, with analyst Peter Spengler explicitly citing the company’s renewed focus on shareholder value. Deutsche Bank recently raised its target to €60 and also keeps a buy recommendation. On the other side, Barclays sticks with an “underweight” stance and a €40 target.
The freed-up cash is flowing directly to shareholders. BASF plans to distribute a double-digit-billion-euro total by 2028, anchored by a proposed dividend of at least €2.25 per share and supplemented by share buybacks. An initial €1.5 billion repurchase programme, launched last November, runs until June 2026 and forms part of a broader buyback strategy financed by divestitures.
Technically, the chart sets a clear frame for the coming weeks. The April high of €54.82 marks the immediate resistance; a sustainable break above that level would open the next medium-term target at €60. Below, support at €50 is the critical line – a drop under it could trigger a noticeable correction. Meanwhile, the 14-day relative-strength index at nearly 84 signals that the stock is deeply overbought in the short run, even though the price is comfortably above its 200-day moving average.
Management remains cautious on the macro front for the rest of the year, expecting subdued global growth and weaker industrial production. Still, BASF has kept its full-year guidance intact: operating profit (before special items) is forecast to land between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion.
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