All eyes are on May 21, when Almonty Industries will release the first output figures from its Sangdong mine in South Korea. The tungsten producer has scheduled the milestone production report just a day after CEO Lewis Black addresses the IIF virtual investor conference on May 20, giving shareholders a direct briefing before the numbers land. The timing is deliberate, and the stakes are high: the Phase 1 plant is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate.
The buildup to that data point comes against a sharp stock correction. Almonty’s shares tumbled roughly 12% in a single session after the company published first-quarter results, closing at C$24.02 on Friday. That is about 25% below the 52-week high of C$32.07. Yet the pullback is a classic profit-taking move on a stock that has rallied hard: it is still up roughly 546% over the past twelve months and has gained nearly 100% since the start of 2026.
The Q1 numbers that triggered the sell-off actually underscore a dramatic transformation. Revenue surged 221% to US$25.4 million, driven by the Sangdong mine’s official commissioning in mid-March. For the first time in recent years, Almonty delivered positive adjusted EBITDA of US$6.1 million, and operating cash flow reached almost US$10 million. The reported net loss of US$5.3 million was purely the result of non-cash valuation effects, management said. The balance sheet remains sturdy: the company holds about US$260 million in cash and equivalents, with an equity ratio north of 60%.
Even as retail investors took profits, institutional buyers moved in. Fidelity entered the shareholder register with a 6.5% stake, representing roughly 18.3 million shares. Van Eck Associates holds another 11.2 million shares. Analysts are also leaning bullish. Alliance Global lifted its price target to US$26.25, Bank of America to US$23, and B. Riley to US$23 — all with buy ratings. Oppenheimer raised its target to US$19 and kept an “Outperform” call.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The broader tungsten market provides the fundamental tailwind. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) has surged about 230% since late 2025, with a tonne now costing around US$3,000. On the demand side, Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that supplies of tungsten hexafluoride — a critical material for 3D NAND chips — could run short as early as this summer. And from January 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers, a mandate for which Almonty is positioning itself directly.
That positioning includes a strategic relocation. The company moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, placing it closer to both its US mining project and defence partners. Sangdong’s geological advantage adds another layer of resilience: ore grades run about 0.51% tungsten trioxide, roughly three times the global average, giving the mine a cost buffer even if tungsten prices soften.
Looking ahead, the next concrete catalyst after the May 21 production report is the annual general meeting on June 9, where shareholders will vote on the Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong. The combination of rising operating output, institutional backing, and structural demand from the Pentagon’s decoupling from China is pushing Almonty from developer to bona fide producer — but the market is now waiting to see whether the mine can consistently deliver on its grade and volume promises.
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