TUI’s stock ended last week at €6.40, extending its year-to-date decline to roughly 28% and leaving it some 32% below the 52-week high of €9.41. The tourism giant’s technical picture has soured sharply: the 200-day moving average now sits at €7.88, and the relative strength index of 38.4 points to oversold territory — though no buying pressure has materialised to reverse the slide. The gap between where the shares trade and where analysts believe they should be has rarely been wider.
JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Bernstein, Jefferies and Barclays all published notes in recent days, keeping price targets that imply substantial upside. JPMorgan rates the stock “Overweight” with a target of €12.50, while Deutsche Bank reiterates “Buy” at €10.50. Bernstein is more cautious at “Market-Perform” with a €9.20 target, Jefferies has “Hold” at €8.20, and Barclays recently trimmed its target to €9.00 but maintained an “Overweight” stance. The average of these targets stands more than 50% above the current share price.
Operationally, TUI is delivering on its core turnaround. Net debt has fallen to around €3 billion, helped by early repayment of convertible bonds issued during the pandemic — a move that will reduce future interest costs. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) for the second quarter came in at minus €188.3 million, an improvement of €18.5 million year-on-year. Management points to strong momentum in the cruise segment and ongoing restructuring in markets and airlines as the main drivers.
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Yet the bottom line has been distorted by external shocks. The Iran conflict and a hurricane in Jamaica together generated roughly €45 million in one-off costs, with the Persian Gulf alone accounting for €40 million. TUI was forced to reroute Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 around Africa for seven weeks after the Strait of Hormuz became impassable, and flew 5,000 passengers home. Since mid-May both vessels have returned to service from Trieste and Heraklion. In a more permanent move, the company cancelled the Orient itinerary of the new Mein Schiff Flow for the winter of 2026/27, replacing it with European destinations, and reduced overall risk capacity by 4-5% to avoid price discounting, according to CEO Sebastian Ebel.
These disruptions prompted TUI to lower its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of €1.1-1.4 billion — down from an earlier expectation of 7-10% growth over last year’s €1.413 billion. Revenue guidance has been suspended for the time being. On the cost side, the company has hedged 83% of its kerosene needs for summer 2026, which limits further exposure to fuel price spikes but does nothing to address potential demand weakness.
New catalysts may emerge later this week. Starting 21 May, TUI’s management will host a series of investor roadshows in London, where they are expected to share early booking data for the peak summer season. Strong numbers could ease some of the pressure that has driven the stock to within striking distance of its 12-month low. For now, the market is pricing in a heavy discount to what analysts see as the company’s underlying earnings power, with the outcome of the summer trading period and the path of geopolitical tensions set to decide whether that discount widens or finally closes.
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