Almonty Industries is crossing a critical threshold. The tungsten producer is rapidly scaling the Sangdong mine in South Korea, positioning itself as a key non-Chinese source of a mineral vital to defence and advanced manufacturing. That strategic pivot comes with a firm deadline: from 2027, tungsten from China, Russia and North Korea will be barred from US defence procurement. To navigate this transition, the company has tapped a Wall Street metals veteran. Jorge Beristain, former head of metals and mining research at Deutsche Bank Securities and most recently CFO at Ryerson Holding, will take over as Almonty’s chief financial officer on 1 June 2026.
The timing is no coincidence. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the intermediate product that drives Almonty’s margins, has surged from an average mid-price of US$862.50 per metric tonne unit (MTU) in early January to roughly US$3,140 by early May. That spike powered a dramatic improvement in first-quarter results: mining revenue jumped 221% to C$25.4 million, and the operating result from mining climbed to C$13.0 million from just C$0.8 million in the year-ago period. Net loss narrowed sharply from C$34.6 million to C$5.3 million.
Yet the cost side tells a more cautious story. Administrative and general expenses more than doubled to C$7.1 million, driven by higher salaries, legal fees and investor-relations spending. Non-cash valuation losses on embedded derivatives and warrant liabilities added further pressure. While the trend is clearly positive, the cost base remains a drag on profitability.
Underpinning the financial turnaround is Sangdong, already operating its first expansion phase. Almonty plans to double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027. At full output, the mine could supply more than 80% of the world’s tungsten production outside China and meet around 40% of non-Chinese demand. CEO Lewis Black recently highlighted a different bottleneck – a severe shortage of skilled mining labour – in a presentation titled “No Team, No Tungsten, No Time”.
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At the same time, Almonty is deepening its US footprint. The Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana could begin production as early as the second half of 2026. The company is moving its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, to be closer to the mine site and to key industrial and government partners. The US defence sector’s upcoming ban on Chinese and Russian tungsten adds urgency to both projects.
On the financial side, analysts are recalibrating their estimates. Diamond Equity Research, in a commissioned study dated 13 May, raised its EPS forecast for the current quarter to US$0.14 from US$0.12, and for fiscal 2027 to US$1.23. The broker also lifted its APT price assumptions: US$2,850 for this year, US$2,640 for next, and US$2,500 long-term. That yields an indicative valuation of C$31.80 per share, though Diamond stressed this depends on execution. Other targets are more varied: Oppenheimer sets a US$19 price target, DA Davidson US$25, and B. Riley US$23.
Almonty’s balance sheet looks sturdy for this capital-intensive phase. As of 31 March 2026, it held C$259.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, with working capital of C$169.5 million. A separate DCF analysis cited a fair value of C$43.69 per share, implying the stock trades roughly 42% below that level.
The market, however, is keeping its distance. After dipping to C$25.12 in early May, the stock recovered to C$26.74, leaving it with a year-to-date gain of 122% but a monthly decline of 10.8%. Such pullbacks are typical after strong rallies, but they highlight that operational progress alone no longer moves the needle. With Beristain’s start in June, the ramp-up at Sangdong and the timeline in Montana, Almonty now has to deliver what the price charts promise.
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