Take-Two Interactive is entering a pivotal stretch, with two major events converging that could redefine investor sentiment around the stock. A leaked retail memo suggesting Grand Theft Auto VI physical pre-orders start on May 18 has collided with the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for May 21 — a coincidence that has Wall Street on high alert.
According to internal affiliate communication from US retailer Best Buy that surfaced this week, pre-orders for the physical version of GTA VI could open as early as May 18 and run through May 21, the exact day Take-Two presents its results. While neither Take-Two nor Rockstar Games have confirmed the leak, the timing has fueled speculation that management may use the earnings call to disclose early pre-order figures, potentially offering a powerful narrative to investors.
UBS has placed a big bet on that narrative. The investment bank named Take-Two its top pick in the US gaming sector, setting a price target of $330 — roughly 35% upside from current levels. UBS acknowledged that AI-driven competition for user attention has weighed on the sector recently, but argued those concerns are overblown for Take-Two given the unique draw of GTA VI. The bank forecasts net bookings of $9 billion for fiscal 2027, with the game itself contributing around $2 billion.
Other analysts are lining up with similarly bullish targets. TD Cowen’s Doug Creutz calls Take-Two one of his best ideas for 2026, sticking to a $284 price target and projecting that GTA VI will sell more than 40 million units in its first twelve months. Bank of America recently raised its target to $320, arguing that GTA VI could push the pricing ceiling for premium titles across the industry. Benchmark and DA Davidson both see $300 as fair value. The consensus rating on the stock remains a moderate buy, with an average price target of $284.31.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Take-Two?
The pre-order leak also ties into broader speculation about Rockstar’s marketing timeline. Historically, the studio released the third trailer for both GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 five to six months before launch. With GTA VI’s global release set for November 19, 2026, that statistical window has now opened — and chatter about a third trailer helped push shares higher earlier this week, though Rockstar has only confirmed that its major marketing push will begin this summer.
All eyes now turn to the May 21 earnings call, where Take-Two will report results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.58 on revenue of roughly $1.55 billion for the quarter, while full-year net bookings are targeted between $6.65 billion and $6.7 billion — representing about 18% growth from the prior year. UBS anticipates Q4 numbers landing near the top end of guidance, but the real focus will be on the forward outlook. Management has indicated it will present a three-year pipeline covering fiscal 2027 through 2029, a first for the company. Analysts note that earlier franchise launches — GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 — both delivered upside surprises after conservative initial guidance, setting a high bar for May 21.
In the near term, mobile games from the Zynga portfolio and perennial performers like NBA 2K are expected to support the business until GTA VI begins to ramp. The game’s live-service component alone could generate roughly $3 billion in net bookings by fiscal 2028, compared with the existing GTA Online contribution of about $500 million annually, according to TD Cowen estimates.
Take-Two’s stock currently trades around €198 in Europe (equivalent to roughly $215), recovering sharply from a February low of €160. However, it remains down about 7.6% year-to-date and well below its 52-week high of €225. The market is waiting for proof that the November release date will hold — and the coming week may deliver exactly that.
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