Micron has muscled past Nvidia in a measure that underscores the shifting dynamics of the AI trade. The memory chipmaker’s five-day average trading volume reached $47 billion on May 14, 2026, eclipsing Nvidia’s $34 billion and leaving Tesla in the rearview mirror. The surge reflects a market scouring the AI infrastructure stack for the next bottleneck — and increasingly finding it in memory.
Bank of America fired the latest salvo in that re-rating, nearly doubling its price target for Micron to $950 from $500 while maintaining a “Buy” rating. Analyst Vivek Arya raised his forecast for the AI data-center market to $1.7 trillion by 2030, up from a prior $1.4 trillion. The call marks a decisive shift in how the bank views the company: no longer a cyclical memory play, but a structural infrastructure bet riding the AI wave.
“The key isn’t just the size of the market,” Arya’s note argued. “It’s about the phase where expensive AI hardware has to deliver measurable returns.” That phase, the bank says, benefits suppliers sitting at critical pinch points. Micron now fits that description.
The valuation model splits Micron into two distinct buckets. HBM and AI-related business accounts for roughly $240 per share, while the traditional DRAM and NAND operations contribute about $710. The message is clear — the market is pricing Micron as a tight-supply winner, not a commodity cyclical. Bank of America expects the supply-demand ratio to stay below 110% through 2028, a setup that historically keeps pricing firm.
That pricing power is already visible in the numbers. For its second fiscal quarter, Micron reported revenue of $23.86 billion, up 196% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $12.20 per share. Management’s third-quarter guidance calls for $33.5 billion in revenue and a gross margin of roughly 81% — levels that suggest more than a typical up-cycle.
Technological ammunition supports the bullish case. In the first calendar quarter of 2026, Micron began production of HBM4 memory modules with 36 GB of capacity, qualified for Nvidia’s Vera-Rubin platform. The 12-high variant delivers a bandwidth of 2.8 TB/s, a combination of speed, density and energy efficiency that positions HBM as a bottleneck rather than a commodity component.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
Days later, on May 12, the company announced samples of new 256 GB DDR5 RDIMM modules aimed at AI servers. These modules hit up to 9,200 megatransfers per second and slash power consumption by more than 40% compared with configurations using multiple 128 GB modules. In an era where energy is becoming the choke point in data centers, such efficiency gains resonate with hyperscale customers.
Those customers are spending aggressively. Total AI-related outlays could surpass $1 trillion by 2027, with Amazon and Microsoft each planning budgets near $200 billion. Alphabet is close behind, while Meta has raised its forecast, explicitly citing higher memory prices as a driver. The spending spree is feeding Micron’s construction pipeline: a $100 billion megafab in New York broke ground earlier this year, and a $24 billion wafer facility in Singapore is planned over the next decade.
Supply-side catalysts could sharpen the tailwinds further. Samsung is facing an 18-day strike scheduled to begin May 21, 2026. A production halt at the world’s largest memory maker would tighten DRAM and HBM supply, potentially pushing prices higher. For Micron, that would be a short-term boost; for AI supply chains, it would mean additional cost pressure.
Yet the rally has already exacted a toll on valuation. The stock closed at $803.63 on Wednesday, up 4.83%, before easing to €682.50 in European trading on Thursday, a 0.6% dip from the record. Over the trailing 30 days, shares have gained 73.75%, and they are up 153.72% year to date. The forward P/E ratio sits at 37.94, nearly double the five-year median of 20.72. GuruFocus data pegs the current price about 138% above its calculated fair value of $336.93.
Insider selling has provided a sobering counterpoint. Director Steven Gomo sold 2,000 shares at an average price of $787.03 on May 11, a transaction worth roughly $1.57 million. Public filings show insider sales totaling about $52.4 million over the past three months. But institutional interest remains robust: Central Asset Investments increased its position by more than 590% in the latest reporting period.
With the Samsung strike deadline on May 21 and Micron’s gross margin trajectory in focus, the next catalysts are clearly defined. If the supply constraint holds and the margin story stays intact, the current valuation premium may be justified. Should capacity ease faster than expected, the stock has less room for error than at any point in this rally.
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