Novo Nordisk is navigating a period of sharp contrasts. The Danish drugmaker’s shares have surged roughly 25% in the past month to €40.09, but the rally sits atop a messy quarterly earnings picture and a surprise manufacturing pullback at home. The company’s decision to scrap plans for a new production facility in Odense and convert the site into a warehouse centre has put more than half of its 150-strong local workforce out of a job, a move confirmed by site manager Jesper Trebbien Andersen to broadcaster TV2. New hiring there has been frozen, underscoring a strategic recalibration even as the company’s metabolic pipeline races toward key regulatory deadlines.
First-quarter headline revenue jumped 32% on a currency-adjusted basis to 96.8 billion Danish kroner, but the gain was largely driven by one-off items. The underlying adjusted operating business shrank 4% in currency-adjusted terms, reflecting a tug-of-war between explosive growth in obesity drugs and persistent pricing pressure in the legacy diabetes franchise. Regionally, the picture was split: adjusted U.S. revenue fell 11% while the international segment expanded 6%. Management nevertheless nudged up its full-year guidance, now forecasting an adjusted revenue decline of between 4% and 12% for 2026.
Wegovy remains the centrepiece of the growth story. The injectable obesity treatment now captures 65% of all new prescriptions in the United States, and three of the country’s largest pharmacy-benefit managers have added it to their standard formularies. The oral version of Wegovy is already generating double-digit growth rates, according to management, even as rival Eli Lilly launched its own tablet formulation, Foundayo, in April. Novo Nordisk plans to roll out the Wegovy tablet outside the U.S. in the second half of 2026.
The next-generation pipeline is drawing increasing investor attention. CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination candidate for obesity, is awaiting a U.S. Food and Drug Administration decision in the fourth quarter of 2026. In the pivotal REDEFINE-1 trial, the drug delivered an average weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, a marked improvement over the company’s earlier single-agent therapies. Separately, Novo Nordisk has submitted an FDA application for Denecimig, a hemophilia A therapy that would be the first in its class to offer flexible dosing intervals.
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The Odense about-face signals a broader effort to streamline capacity. Rather than building a new plant, the company is converting the site into a pure logistics hub. The move comes despite strong operational momentum and a €15 billion kroner share buyback programme launched this year for shareholders. A first tranche of that programme wrapped up in early May, and the next dividend payment is due on August 19.
At current levels, the stock trades at 13.6 times forward earnings — historically moderate for a company with a blockbuster obesity franchise. Yet the equity has lost nearly 10% since the start of the year and remains 31% lower than a year ago. The current price of around €40 is well below the 2025 high of roughly €70 and still beneath the long-term trend line, which sits at €42.43.
For investors, the immediate catalysts cluster in the fourth quarter, when the FDA is scheduled to rule on both CagriSema and Denecimig. Those decisions will shape the next leg of the Novo Nordisk narrative, as the company balances pipeline ambition against the discipline of domestic cost-cutting.
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