Gold opened the week treading water around the $4,730 mark, as a waning safe-haven bid from the Middle East was offset by a softer dollar and the looming handover of power at the Federal Reserve. The spot price stood at $4,732.45 per troy ounce early Monday, a 0.19% dip from Friday’s LBMA close, with the first London AM fix due at 10:30 BST.
The diplomatic pause in “Operation Freedom” and reported progress in US-Iranian negotiations have pulled capital out of defensive gold positions and into riskier assets. President Donald Trump’s signals of a potential final accord have been the primary catalyst, tempering the geopolitical risk premium that had driven bullion higher in recent weeks. Yet the picture is far from one-sided: the dollar index slipped to 98.05, making gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, while central bank demand continues to provide a steady floor. European institutions such as the Banque de France are maintaining stable gold allocations as a hedge against dollar dependence.
That institutional backdrop is being reinforced by fresh uncertainty over US monetary policy. Kevin Warsh is set to officially succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair on 15 May, and markets are still calibrating his likely stance. Speculation that Warsh could adopt a more restrictive approach than his predecessor has introduced a new variable into the gold equation, feeding a cautious tone ahead of a dense data week.
Friday’s US jobs report offered the first glimpse of the labour market under the current Fed’s final stretch. Non-farm payrolls rose by 115,000, well above the 65,000 consensus, while wage growth held at a modest 0.2%. The initial reaction in gold was muted, but the metal recovered through the session as the dollar eased and bond yields stabilised. The weekly performance was robust: the LBMA benchmark closed Friday with a daily gain of about 3.1%, translating to a nearly 9% advance for the week.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Goldpreis LBMA?
From a technical perspective, the $4,700 zone has shifted from psychological resistance to short-term support. A break below that level would bring the median forecast area around $4,621 into focus. On the upside, selling pressure is expected near $4,800. The metal remains above both its 20-day moving average (around $4,620) and its 200-day moving average (near $4,300), but the 50-day average proved a stubborn barrier on Friday and could cap further gains in the near term. The relative strength index at 58.1 suggests the market is no longer overheated, leaving room for another leg higher if fundamentals align.
In the broader precious metals complex, silver is showing more resilience, trading near $77.71 per ounce after touching $80 on Friday. The divergence underscores different drivers: while gold’s safe-haven trade has cooled, silver continues to benefit from industrial demand and inflation-hedging flows.
Market attention now shifts to a packed schedule starting 12 May. The US consumer price index for April is due Monday, with consensus pointing to an annual rate of 3.7%–3.8%. A higher-than-expected reading would strengthen the dollar and pressure gold, while a softer number could revive the uptrend. Wednesday brings the producer price index as a pipeline inflation gauge, and Friday marks Warsh’s formal assumption of the Fed chairmanship—an event likely to inject volatility into both the dollar and Treasury yields, and by extension into gold.
Protection in the options market has edged higher, with traders hedging against a possible “sell-the-news” event should a US-Iran agreement be formally signed. For now, the first test is the London AM fix. If gold can maintain its footing above $4,700, the consolidation remains orderly. A rise in the 10-year US yield toward 4.5% would, however, quickly intensify headwinds. At an annualised volatility of 59.35%, the market remains jittery, waiting for the next catalyst to break the current equilibrium.
Ad
Goldpreis LBMA Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Goldpreis LBMA Analysis from May 11 delivers the answer:
The latest Goldpreis LBMA figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Goldpreis LBMA investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from May 11.
Goldpreis LBMA: Buy or sell? Read more here...
