The Czech defence group CSG NV has found itself in an unusual predicament: a company with a €15 billion order book, an investment-grade credit rating, and revenue growth of 72% is watching its stock trade at roughly half its IPO price. The disconnect between operational strength and market sentiment has rarely been starker.
A €275 million receivable — stemming from the sale of non-core assets ahead of the company’s record-breaking defence IPO — was settled in full during the first quarter of 2026, matching the timeline CSG had communicated to investors when it went public. That cash injection, however, has done little to stem the bleeding on the stock market.
The Hunterbrook Blitz
The catalyst for the latest leg down came from Hunterbrook Media, whose associated investment vehicle Hunterbrook Capital holds a disclosed short position in CSG shares. The critical report sent the stock plunging as much as 26% on Monday, dragging it to a 52-week low of €15.73. The shares have since recovered modestly to trade around €17, but that still represents a roughly 45% decline from the IPO price.
At the heart of the short-seller’s allegations is the question of how much ammunition CSG actually produces itself versus how much it merely refurbishes. Hunterbrook claims the company relies more heavily on so-called recommissioning — buying old munitions, repairing them, and putting them back into circulation — than investors were led to believe during the IPO roadshow. The firm estimates CSG’s genuine 155mm production at between 100,000 and 280,000 rounds, far below the roughly 500,000 rounds implied by the IPO prospectus.
Hunterbrook also cast doubt on a Slovak framework agreement that CSG had presented as a growth driver, with a maximum volume of €58 billion. According to the short seller, none of the eight partner countries named by the Slovak state have formally joined the pact.
CSG Fires Back
Management wasted no time pushing back. The company described the report as inaccurate and selective, arguing that Hunterbrook fundamentally misunderstood its distributed production network spanning multiple sites and countries. CSG stated that its own capacity for medium- and large-calibre ammunition stood at roughly 630,000 rounds in 2025.
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For 2026, the group reaffirmed its guidance: revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.6 billion, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 24% to 25%. Own production is expected to grow by around 20%, supported by a new manufacturing line in Slovakia.
The company is also pressing ahead with expansion. CSG is acquiring a 49% stake in Hirtenberger Defence Systems from Hungarian conglomerate 4iG — its first acquisition in Austria, adding mortar ammunition capabilities to the portfolio.
Analysts Hold the Line
The sell-side has largely shrugged off the short-seller attack. All nine analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, with not a single sell recommendation on the books. The average price target stands at €35.40 — more than double the current share price.
JPMorgan analysts have praised the company’s “extremely solid” balance sheet, forecasting that net debt will fall to 0.7 times operating earnings by the end of 2026. Moody’s added to the positive narrative in February, upgrading CSG’s secured debt to investment-grade Baa3.
The Ceasefire Question
Beyond the short-seller drama, the stock faces headwinds from speculation about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Some market participants fear an abrupt end to the defence boom. CSG’s management has pushed back forcefully against that scenario, arguing that an end to hostilities would not destroy orders but merely shift them. Demand would pivot from pure ammunition toward comprehensive modernisation programmes, they contend, with European rearmament and NATO standardisation remaining structural drivers.
The Moment of Truth
All eyes are now on May 20, when CSG reports first-quarter results — its first financial statement as a public company, which will also include the retrospectively booked IPO costs. For a stock that has lost nearly half its value since listing, the earnings release represents a pivotal moment. Management will need to deliver concrete, measurable answers on production capacity, not just rebuttals.
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