Brazil’s navy just welcomed its first Tamandaré-class frigate, and the ink on the commissioning papers is barely dry. On April 24, 2026, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Embraer, and Brazil’s defense ministry signed a memorandum of understanding for four additional vessels. The deal is not yet a binding order—a letter of intent signals goodwill, not a contractual commitment—but the timing speaks volumes. That Brasília is already negotiating an expansion while the first ship enters service suggests deep satisfaction with TKMS’s work.
The original program dates back to 2017, with the contract for the initial four frigates inked in 2020. For a group in the throes of a painful restructuring, a follow-on order would provide exactly the kind of long-term planning security that the steel division cannot offer. Marine projects stretch over years, locking in capacity and revenue well beyond the current decade.
Yet for all the naval optimism, the broader picture at Thyssenkrupp remains clouded. The stock closed Monday at €8.94, up 1.34 percent on the day, but the year-to-date tally shows a loss of nearly eight percent. Analysts at Jefferies have trimmed their EBIT estimate for the current fiscal year to €830 million, a modest reduction that still sits comfortably above the market consensus of €794 million. The house kept its buy rating and €13 price target intact, but flagged geopolitical tensions and the steel unit’s persistent struggles as reasons for caution.
The real drag on sentiment is the stalled sale process at Steel Europe. Talks with Jindal Steel International have hit a wall, pushing any near-term resolution into the distance. That deadlock keeps uncertainty over the group’s future structure alive and well. Meanwhile, restructuring costs at the steel subsidiary are expected to reach around €800 million this year, and management is pushing ahead with the exit from Hüttenwerke Krupp-Mannesmann, a process slated for completion by June 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Adding to the pressure, Thyssenkrupp Nucera took another hit. Deutsche Bank downgraded the hydrogen specialist to “hold” and slashed its price target to €10, citing a weak order book and the aftershocks of a spring profit warning. Nucera shares slid more than three percent, and the weakness inevitably spills over onto the parent company’s reputation.
For the longer term, Jefferies sees a brighter 2027 and raised its operating estimates accordingly. The bank’s continued buy recommendation suggests faith that the transformation story is intact, even if the path is rocky. Thyssenkrupp is pressing ahead with its multibillion-euro DRI project for hydrogen-based steelmaking in Duisburg, roughly 70 percent of which is covered by public subsidies.
The next concrete milestone, however, does not lie in Kiel or Essen—it lies in Rio de Janeiro. Turning the frigate memorandum into a firm contract depends on budget decisions in Brasília. Until the steel situation clears—whether through a revived Jindal negotiation or a clean HKM exit by mid-2026—the stock lacks a fundamental catalyst for a sustained upward move. The naval victory lap is real, but the steel headwind is stubborn.
Ad
Thyssenkrupp Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Thyssenkrupp Analysis from April 28 delivers the answer:
The latest Thyssenkrupp figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Thyssenkrupp investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from April 28.
Thyssenkrupp: Buy or sell? Read more here...
