PayPal is betting that its vast trove of payment data can unlock a new revenue stream, but the market is waiting to see whether the strategy will actually move the needle. The company’s April 22 launch of Curated Ads, a connected-TV advertising product that uses verified transaction data to prove ad effectiveness, arrives at a moment when the stock is under severe pressure and investors are demanding fresh catalysts.
The product taps into PayPal’s network of more than 430 million consumer accounts and 25 billion annual transactions, linking ad impressions directly to completed purchases without relying on cookies or click models. Inventory comes from premium partners including Warner Bros. Discovery, Spectrum Reach, and Tubi. The timing is deliberate: the launch coincides with the upfront advertising season, when media buyers lock in budgets for the coming year.
The move positions PayPal as a direct rival to Amazon in the fast-growing CTV ad market, but it also reflects a deeper strategic pivot. With the core branded checkout business — the higher-margin payment button — growing at just 1%, the company needs new growth engines. Curated Ads offers a way to monetize the transaction data that PayPal already processes, turning a cost center into a profit driver.
A Stock Under Siege
The advertising push comes against a challenging backdrop for the shares. PayPal stock has lost roughly 15% since the start of the year and more than 25% over the past twelve months. At around €42.29, it trades well below its 200-day moving average of €50.69. The secondary article, using dollar pricing, notes the stock at roughly $42.73 — about 14% below its 200-day average — and highlights a 19% plunge following the CEO change and a disappointing outlook.
The divergence between the two sources on exact percentage declines (15% vs. 14% year-to-date) reflects different pricing points and currency conversions, but the direction is unmistakable: PayPal has been a laggard.
Analysts Split, But Skepticism Dominates
The analyst community remains deeply divided. Truist’s Matthew Coad recently raised his price target from $39 to $45, citing a friendlier payments environment, stronger US bank data, and more robust consumer spending — yet he maintained his sell rating. His concern: downside risk to earnings estimates, driven by continued weakness in branded checkout.
The broader consensus is more cautious than bullish. BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and a $52 target. Bank of America lifted its target to $55 but kept a Neutral stance. Cantor Fitzgerald also holds Neutral with a $54 target. The average analyst price target sits around $49, with the consensus recommendation at Hold. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, most are waiting for clearer evidence of a turnaround.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying PayPal?
The key risks they cite are familiar: intensifying competition from Apple Pay, Shopify, and Stripe; uncertainty about strategic direction under new CEO Enrique Lores; and the structural erosion of PayPal’s higher-margin checkout business.
The First Test for Lores
The May 5 earnings report will be the first under Lores, who took the helm promising faster execution. Expectations are modest: analysts forecast diluted earnings per share of $1.27, roughly 4.5% below the year-ago period. PayPal has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once.
For the full year 2026, management has signaled a slight decline in transaction margins, while the Street had been looking for modest growth. The first quarter is expected to show flat to slightly lower adjusted earnings per share.
The earnings call will be scrutinized for signs that Curated Ads is gaining traction, even if it is too early for meaningful revenue contribution. Investors will also want to hear whether Lores can stabilize the branded checkout business, whether partnerships with Google, OpenAI, and Perplexity are generating measurable results, and whether the headwind from interest rates is easing.
A Narrow Window of Optimism
The stock has rallied roughly 13% over the past 30 days, suggesting some investors are betting on a turnaround. But the fundamental questions remain unresolved. PayPal’s scale advantages are real — no other payments company can match its combination of consumer reach, merchant relationships, and transaction data — but the competitive landscape is shifting rapidly.
Curated Ads represents an attempt to turn that data advantage into a defensible moat. If it works, PayPal could carve out a lucrative niche in the $30 billion-plus CTV advertising market. If it doesn’t, the company will be left defending a shrinking core business against better-capitalized rivals.
The May 5 report will not provide a definitive answer, but it will show whether the new CEO’s strategy is gaining traction — or whether PayPal’s best days are behind it.
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