The oil market is contending with a supply crisis not seen in modern history. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which more than 20 million barrels of crude passed daily as recently as February, has been effectively sealed off by the Iran conflict. Global oil supply plunged to 97 million barrels per day in March, a drop of 10.1 million barrels from the prior month, according to an IEA report from April 2026. Brent crude now trades at nearly $108 a barrel, well above pre-crisis levels.
For OMV, the Vienna-based energy group, the fallout is complex. The company’s shares are changing hands at €58.35, just above their 50-day moving average. The stock has rallied roughly 21% since the start of the year but remains about 8% below its April high of €63.20. The relative strength index sits at 70, suggesting the market is not pricing the equity as a bargain.
Refining Margins Get an Unexpected Boost
The crisis has produced a counterintuitive dynamic for downstream operations. A study by ZEW and DICE found that Germany’s “12-Uhr-Tankregel” — a fuel pricing rule introduced on April 1, 2026 — has actually shored up industry margins rather than squeezing them. Petrol margins have risen by an average of around 6 euro cents per litre, while diesel margins in southern Germany have gained as much as 2.4 cents.
Consumers are feeling the pinch at the pump. Super E10 now costs €2.099 per litre, and diesel €2.195, according to the ADAC. Berlin plans to intervene from May 1 with a fuel price brake, cutting energy taxes by roughly 17 cents per litre for two months. Analysts doubt that will be enough to push diesel below €2.00 for good as long as the Hormuz blockade persists.
Short-Term Pain in the Q1 Numbers
Before any relief arrives, OMV must navigate immediate headwinds. The company reports first-quarter results on Thursday, April 30, and has already flagged trouble in its Fuels division. Disruptions to crude flows from the Middle East, combined with hedging losses, are expected to weigh on the quarter to the tune of around €100 million. Leverage has also risen compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by investment activity and inventory changes.
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The IEA has slashed its 2026 demand forecast from growth of 730,000 barrels per day to an outright decline of 80,000 barrels daily, underscoring the broader economic drag.
Neptun Deep: The Long Game Takes Shape
While the immediate picture is clouded, OMV is placing a big bet on the future. The Neptun Deep gas project in the Black Sea is gathering pace, with production slated to begin in 2027. The infrastructure build-out is on schedule, and the goal is to first cover Romania’s domestic needs before building export capacity to neighbouring EU countries.
The geopolitical backdrop gives the venture added weight. Europe is racing to wean itself off Russian gas, and Romania — with Neptun Deep — could emerge as a linchpin of a more independent regional energy architecture. OMV Petrom’s management has repeatedly stressed the project’s strategic importance.
Together with the integration of the Borealis chemicals division, Neptun Deep forms the strategic foundation for OMV’s 2030 vision. But the proof will come on Thursday, when the quarterly report reveals just how deeply the current volatility is cutting into cash flows.
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