The stars are not aligning for Barrick Mining. While the Canadian gold giant posted a near-$5 billion profit last year and rewarded shareholders with a 40% dividend hike, its stock has been sliding since January, and the macro backdrop is turning hostile. The shares closed at C$56.14 on Friday, down more than 20% from their January high of roughly C$72, and are now technically oversold with a Relative Strength Index hovering near 30.
The immediate pressure comes from gold itself. The precious metal slipped to around $4,570 an ounce recently, dragged lower by stubborn inflation fears that are keeping interest rate expectations elevated. Over the past week alone, gold lost more than 2%, falling to roughly $4,672, as hopes for US-Iran peace talks dampened safe-haven demand while rising oil prices reignited inflation worries. That combination has been a headwind for Barrick’s shares, which are down about 6% year-to-date despite a positive 12-month performance.
A Crucial Week for the Macro Calendar
The coming days will test whether the selling pressure intensifies or abates. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision lands on April 29, with markets pricing in a hold at current levels. The following day brings the first-quarter US GDP estimate alongside the PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Strong economic data would typically bolster the dollar and weigh further on gold, complicating Barrick’s near-term outlook.
Against this volatile macro backdrop, the company is navigating its own operational challenges. All-in sustaining costs are forecast to hit between $1,760 and $1,950 per ounce in 2026, driven in part by higher diesel prices that eat into margins before a single ounce is extracted. That cost pressure follows a production slump last year that saw output fall to its lowest level in a quarter-century.
The $42 Billion Spin-Off: A Structural Reset
The most significant catalyst on the horizon is not a quarterly earnings beat or a gold price rally—it is a corporate restructuring of historic proportions. Barrick has mandated Goldman Sachs as lead underwriter for the initial public offering of a new entity that will house its premier North American assets. The vehicle will bundle the company’s majority stake in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, the Fourmile discovery, and the Pueblo Viejo mine.
RBC analyst Josh Wolfson estimates that the Nevada operations alone account for roughly 60% of Barrick’s current enterprise value. The broader spin-off has been valued by analysts at approximately $42 billion. Barrick plans to list a minority stake of up to 15% by the end of 2026, creating a pure-play gold investment for institutional investors who typically shy away from the risk premiums attached to mines in emerging markets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?
The logic is compelling: a separate listing unlocks value by giving large funds exposure to tier-one North American assets without the geopolitical baggage that weighs on Barrick’s broader portfolio. But the execution risk is real, and the timeline is tight.
Geopolitical Setbacks and Operational Hurdles
While the spin-off story is a long-term driver, the near-term operational picture is messy. Barrick has slowed development of the Reko Diq project in Pakistan due to local security concerns, pushing back a review of the multi-billion-dollar investment to mid-2027. First production is now not expected until late 2028 at the earliest—a delay that underscores the very risks the spin-off is designed to isolate.
The company’s new CEO faces an early crucible. On May 8, management will face shareholders at the virtual annual general meeting. Three days later, on May 11, first-quarter results are due. Expectations are elevated after last year’s earnings bonanza, and the market will be watching closely to see whether the promised production ramp-up in the second half of the year can offset the persistent cost inflation.
CIBC recently trimmed its price target on Barrick to $63 but maintained a buy rating. J.P. Morgan remains bullish on gold itself, forecasting a price of $5,000 an ounce by year-end—a level that would dramatically improve Barrick’s margin profile if realized.
Dividend Hike Signals Confidence
Despite the near-term headwinds, Barrick’s board has signaled confidence in the company’s financial position. The quarterly dividend was raised by 40% to $0.175 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of roughly half of free cash flow. That increase was enabled by a strong cash flow performance last year, even as production volumes disappointed.
For investors, the key date is May 11. If Barrick can deliver quarterly numbers that validate its cost guidance and show progress on production, the stock may find a floor. If not, the 200-day moving average at C$51.71 could come into play as the next technical support level. Either way, the spin-off narrative provides a structural reason to own the stock—but the path to that $42 billion IPO is littered with macro and operational potholes.
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