The US remains entirely dependent on foreign sources for natural graphite, a critical component in electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems. Graphite One is attempting to rewrite that equation with an ambitious plan stretching from a mine in Alaska to a processing facility in Ohio. But the company is now juggling a complex mix of headwinds and tailwinds that could define its trajectory for years to come.
A Rare-Earth Wild Card
Independent testing has uncovered high concentrations of heavy rare earth elements at the Graphite Creek project in Alaska, adding a potentially transformative layer to what was already the largest known graphite deposit in the US, according to the US Geological Survey. The discovery includes neodymium and dysprosium — magnetic metals essential for wind turbines and electric motors — and crucially, the rock contains no toxic byproducts such as uranium or thorium, which would complicate extraction.
A US national laboratory is scheduled to evaluate possible processing methods later this year, and if successful, the project could evolve into a dual-mineral operation. That geological upside arrives at a moment when the company is facing a significant policy setback.
Tariff Blow from Washington
The US International Trade Commission released its final report on Sunday, and the verdict is clear: there will be no tariffs on Chinese graphite used in battery anodes. The agency concluded that imports do not threaten the development of a domestic US industry. That decision strips away the protective barrier that domestic developers had been counting on.
China currently controls more than 95% of global processing capacity, leaving projects like Graphite One exposed to direct price competition. The absence of trade protection sharpens the pressure on the company to prove its economic viability on its own merits.
The Numbers Behind the Plan
A recently updated feasibility study lays out the potential scale of the endeavor. The project carries a pre-tax net present value of $6.4 billion, with an internal rate of return of 30%. To keep upfront costs manageable, management has adopted a modular approach. The Ohio facility is designed to begin operations before the Alaska mine is fully operational, sourcing natural graphite on the open market in the interim to produce active anode material.
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Commercial production of anode material is slated for 2028, with the Alaska mine expected to start two years later. The deposit is projected to support a mine life of two decades.
Financing and the Permitting Clock
The US Export-Import Bank has conditionally committed up to $2.07 billion in debt financing, covering roughly 70% of estimated project costs. For the remainder, management is in talks with five North American investment banks. But the clock is ticking on regulatory approvals: the company must secure all federal permits by September 29, 2026 to retain its expedited FAST-41 status.
That timeline is under growing pressure. Local tribal representatives have organized opposition, voicing concerns about impacts on food sources, and delays are a real possibility. Since February, Lucille Carter — who brings experience from the Bering Strait Native Corporation — has been overseeing community relations, tasked with aligning indigenous interests with mine development.
A Volatile Stock Story
The market reflects the long lead time and uncertainty. Shares closed Friday at $0.86, up roughly 24% over the past month. But the year-to-date picture is less rosy, with a decline of about 27% (or 26%, depending on the data set). The stock is trading just above its 50-day moving average, and annualized volatility remains elevated at over 76%.
The immediate focus is on funding the initial construction phases. Between now and the planned 2028 production start in Ohio, Graphite One must demonstrate that the billion-dollar projections in its feasibility study can translate into operational reality — all while navigating a permitting deadline, community opposition, and the absence of trade protection. The rare-earth discovery adds a new dimension, but it also adds complexity to an already intricate puzzle.
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