A strategic relocation from Toronto to a small Montana town has triggered a flurry of institutional buying in Almonty Industries, as the critical minerals producer positions itself at the center of US defense supply chains. Marathon Capital Management led the charge, boosting its stake by approximately 137% to nearly 600,000 shares, according to recent regulatory filings. Telemark Asset Management and Baader Bank have also established new positions, pushing the company’s market capitalization toward the $6 billion mark.
The stock has responded in kind, surging roughly 715% over the past twelve months. Shares closed at C$29.94 on Friday, though technical indicators suggest the rally may be overheating. The relative strength index sits at 76.7, firmly in overbought territory and roughly 21% above the 50-day moving average.
From Toronto to Dillon
Management completed the official move to Dillon, Montana in mid-April, a shift that goes far beyond a change of address. The company is deliberately embedding itself within the US defense ecosystem, building ties with Pentagon officials, defense contractors, and government agencies. Former high-ranking US Army generals now sit on the board, and Almonty participates in the Pentagon-backed Critical Minerals Forum.
The centerpiece of this strategy is the local Gentung-Browns-Lake project in Beaverhead County. The deposit holds 7.53 million tonnes grading 0.315% tungsten trioxide, and Almonty holds exclusive exploration rights. The company aims to achieve production readiness by the second half of 2026, using refurbished equipment from its European operations and pre-installed water pipelines. Annual capacity is projected at roughly 140,000 metric tonne units.
A mining permit remains the key hurdle. If granted, extraction could begin before the end of 2026 — a milestone that would end the United States’ decade-long absence from commercial tungsten production, which has not occurred since 2015.
Sangdong Provides the Foundation
While Montana represents the future, South Korea’s Sangdong mine provides the present. After more than 30 years of inactivity, Phase 1 commercial production began this spring. The facility is expected to deliver approximately 2,300 tonnes of concentrate annually, underpinned by long-term offtake agreements with guaranteed minimum prices.
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This operational base gives Almonty financial credibility as it pursues its US ambitions. Revenue for 2025 reached $32.5 million, up nearly 13% year-over-year. Analysts project a sharp acceleration to C$231 million in 2026 — a figure that assumes both sustained Sangdong output and progress in Montana. Eight analysts currently cover the stock, assigning an average rating of “Strong Buy” with a price target of $22.33.
Tungsten Market Tightens
The broader commodity backdrop is working in Almonty’s favor. China cut its export quotas for the first half of 2026 by 12% compared to the prior-year period, intensifying supply constraints. The average price for tungsten APT recently stood at $2,250 per MTU, while spot prices have climbed to roughly $2,526. Substitution remains difficult for most industrial applications, giving producers significant pricing power.
Washington is responding through “Project Vault,” a multibillion-dollar program aimed at building strategic reserves of critical minerals, with tungsten designated as a priority. Texas Capital and D.A. Davidson have both reiterated positive views, setting price targets of $25.
Earnings on the Horizon
The next major catalyst arrives May 20, when Almonty reports first-quarter results. Analysts will scrutinize the numbers for the first full quarter of Sangdong production, assessing whether the mine can sustain its ramp trajectory. Management is also scheduled to present at the International Investment Forum on the same day, with plans to double global production capacity on the agenda.
Until then, the stock’s trajectory hinges largely on regulatory progress in Montana. The mining permit application will determine whether the current valuation reflects genuine fundamental support or anticipation that has run ahead of reality.
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