RBC has thrown its weight behind Commerzbank, upgrading the stock to “Outperform” from “Sector Perform” with a “Speculative Risk” tag. Analyst Anke Reingen lifted the price target to €43 from €37, implying a roughly 27% upside from the current €33.91 level. The move reflects a bet that the German lender can sustainably improve its return on equity, with UniCredit’s persistent interest underscoring the underlying value. If Commerzbank achieves this on its own, Reingen argues, the market will re-rate the shares; if a takeover materializes, the Italian giant’s interest provides a floor for the stock.
The upgrade arrives as Commerzbank prepares to fire its most potent defensive salvo yet. On May 8, the bank will release first-quarter earnings alongside a strategic update, with management expected to raise financial targets. Analysts polled by Bloomberg see net profit hitting €3.3 billion in 2026, a sharp leap from current levels. The message is clear: Commerzbank believes it can thrive as a standalone entity.
The battle lines are hardening. UniCredit formally rejected Commerzbank’s resistance on April 20, offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share — worth roughly €30.80 at the time. Frankfurt dismissed the bid as value-destructive, accusing Milan of lacking a concrete integration plan or a fair control premium. The German government, which still holds about 12% of Commerzbank, backs the independence stance. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly opposed hostile tactics in banking, while works council chief Sascha Uebel called the offer an “outrage” and vowed to fight it with all available means.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
The stock has been volatile. Over the past week, Commerzbank shares have shed nearly 6%, though they remain up 44% year-on-year. The relative strength index sits at 73, suggesting short-term overbought conditions. Yet the shares closed at €34.47 recently, comfortably above the 50-day moving average of €33.05, and the takeover premium is not fully priced in. That leaves much riding on operational performance — strong earnings could sustain momentum even without a deal.
The calendar is tightening. On May 4, UniCredit shareholders will vote on a capital increase needed to fund the bid. The Italian lender is expected to publish a formal offer shortly after, with markets penciling in May 2026 as the likely deadline. Commerzbank must deliver compelling numbers just four days later to justify its independence. As one analyst put it, the May 8 update will move the stock more than any research note.
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