The past month has been brutal for Deutsche Telekom shareholders, with the stock shedding roughly 14% of its value. Now, a compressed calendar of events over the next seven days could determine whether the bleeding stops or accelerates.
A Double Dose of Corporate Drama
Two high-stakes events are converging in a single week, each capable of swinging the stock in either direction. On Monday, management sits down with the ver.di union in Siegburg for the second round of wage negotiations. The union is demanding a 6.6% pay increase for roughly 60,000 employees over a twelve-month contract, plus an annual member bonus of €660. The first round ended with no offer from the employer side, and further meetings are scheduled for May. The stakes are high: Deutsche Telekom is targeting an adjusted EBITDA of around €47.4 billion for 2026, and rising personnel costs would directly pressure that margin.
Just one day later, on Tuesday, T-Mobile US releases its first-quarter results. The American subsidiary now contributes nearly two-thirds of the group’s operating profit — no other segment carries more weight. The bar has been raised by AT&T, which recently revamped its pricing and beat expectations on both revenue and earnings for the first quarter. That puts additional pressure on T-Mobile US to deliver a strong showing.
Technical Damage and Analyst Pushback
The technical picture is equally strained. At €27.61, the stock sits roughly 6% below its 200-day moving average — a classic bearish signal that has drawn increased trading volume. Over XETRA alone, more than 2.3 million shares changed hands by early afternoon on Friday. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 37, flirting with oversold territory but not yet flashing a clear buy signal.
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UBS analyst Polo Tang, however, sees the selloff as overdone. He argues that if a potential full integration of T-Mobile US were truly negative, the US stock should have risen — not fallen alongside the parent company. Both declined, suggesting panic selling rather than rational repricing. Tang also notes that recent media reports rule out any imminent transaction. His price target of €36.20 implies nearly 30% upside from current levels. JPMorgan maintains a €40 target but acknowledges the regulatory hurdles such a deal would face in the US.
Structural Support Beneath the Surface
Despite the near-term turbulence, several structural factors provide a floor. The ongoing share buyback program is in its second tranche, which began in early April and runs through the end of June, with the company repurchasing up to €550 million worth of shares. The total buyback envelope for 2026 reaches as high as €2 billion.
On the operational front, Deutsche Telekom continues to expand its fiber-optic network, with an additional €800 million earmarked for rollout over the next three years. Already, 12.6 million households can book fiber connections. In a new twist, the company is now offering a fully managed satellite broadband service for business customers via the Starlink network — a first for a German network operator.
What to Watch Next
The parent company reports its own quarterly results on May 13. Until then, the combination of T-Mobile US earnings and the outcome of the labor talks will set the tone. Strong operational numbers from the American subsidiary could ease some of the pressure on the stock, while a costly wage settlement would add fresh headwinds. Technically, reclaiming the €29 mark is the next key milestone for bulls.
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