Germany’s second-largest listed lender is doubling down on cost discipline as it races to prove its independence is worth more than any takeover premium. Commerzbank is preparing a fresh round of job cuts, part of a broader push to hit a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 54% this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The exact number of redundancies has yet to be finalised, but the move is expected to be detailed alongside the bank’s first-quarter results on 8 May.
The accelerated efficiency drive comes as UniCredit tightens its grip. The Italian lender now holds 26.77% of Commerzbank shares directly, with its total economic exposure — including derivatives and hedging instruments — approaching 33%. Commerzbank’s management has repeatedly branded the approach hostile, criticising the lack of a control premium and a concrete integration plan.
Chief executive Bettina Orlopp is betting that sharper financial targets can convince investors the bank is better off alone. The updated “Momentum” strategy, due for release alongside the quarterly numbers, is expected to set a net profit target of €4.2 billion by 2028. That would represent a significant leap from the €3.3 billion consensus forecast among 18 analysts for 2026. For the current year, Commerzbank already expects net income to exceed its original guidance.
The bank’s defence rests on three pillars: cost cuts, fee income growth, and shareholder returns. Management argues that a standalone path carries far fewer execution risks than a cross-border merger. The board will ask shareholders at the annual meeting in Wiesbaden to approve a dividend of €1.10 per share, as well as authorisation for future share buybacks — a tactic aimed at keeping investors onside.
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Political support for Commerzbank’s independence remains firm. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly rejected hostile tactics in the banking sector, while the German government retains a roughly 12% stake with no plans to sell. Labour representatives are also digging in. Works council chief Sascha Uebel described UniCredit’s overtures as an “impertinence” and vowed to resist by all available means.
UniCredit’s bid, offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, was valued at roughly €30.80 when announced. Commerzbank shares have since climbed to €34.47, up about 47% over the past year, and trade comfortably above their 50-day moving average of €33.05. The takeover premium baked into the stock price reflects market expectations of a deal, but Commerzbank’s management is betting that stronger standalone numbers can shift that narrative.
The calendar is tight. UniCredit shareholders vote on a necessary capital increase on 4 May, after which the Italian lender plans to publish its formal takeover offer. Four days later, Commerzbank will deliver its quarterly results and strategic update. The Frankfurt-based lender needs to show not just better numbers, but a credible path to sustained outperformance — without the safety net of a merger.
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