The German insurer is navigating a rare moment of contradiction. Its credit insurance arm is sounding the alarm on a looming wave of corporate failures, while a major Wall Street bank has just issued one of the most bullish calls on the stock in years. For investors, the question is which signal will prove louder.
Goldman Sachs Sees a Path to €450
Andrew Baker, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, has upgraded Allianz from “Neutral” to “Buy” and lifted the price target sharply to €450. The move pushes back against two prevailing market fears: that private credit exposure poses a systemic risk, and that artificial intelligence will disrupt the insurance model. Baker argues the private credit book represents only a fraction of the company’s market value, while AI offers a tool to improve profitability rather than a threat to it.
The upgrade comes as the stock trades near €390, just shy of its 52-week high. Over the past month, the shares have gained roughly 10 percent, putting the all-time high from the year 2000 back in sight.
A Warning from Inside the House
That bullish sentiment sits uncomfortably alongside a stark new forecast from Allianz Trade, the group’s credit insurance subsidiary. The unit now expects global corporate insolvencies to rise 6 percent in 2026 — double its pre-Nahost conflict estimate. It would mark the fifth consecutive year of increases.
For Germany, Allianz Trade projects 24,650 insolvencies, the highest figure in 14 years. Energy price volatility, disrupted supply chains, and the lingering US trade conflict are hitting transport, chemicals, and metals hardest. “The Middle East conflict is already having a clear impact on Germany, and the US trade war is far from over,” said Milo Bogaerts, the unit’s regional head for Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
The human toll is equally stark. The credit insurer estimates 2.2 million jobs are at risk globally, with Europe accounting for 1.3 million of them. Germany alone could see 209,000 positions threatened, concentrated in construction, retail and services. In a worst-case scenario assigned a 35 percent probability, global insolvencies could jump 10 percent, with no recovery expected in 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?
Mixed Signals for the Parent
For Allianz SE, the warning from its own subsidiary cuts both ways. Higher insolvencies increase claims costs in the credit insurance business, but they also drive demand for coverage. Allianz Trade generated consolidated revenue of €4 billion in 2025 and insured transactions worth €1.4 trillion — a meaningful earnings contributor, not a sideshow.
The stock’s resilience suggests the market is, for now, looking past the risk. But that could change when the company reports first-quarter results on May 13. Those numbers will offer the first concrete look at how geopolitical turbulence is affecting the group’s bottom line.
India Expansion Adds Momentum
Operational progress elsewhere is providing a counterweight. On April 22, Allianz confirmed a binding agreement with Jio Financial Services to form a 50-50 joint venture in India, focused on property and casualty insurance as well as health coverage. RBC analyst Ben Cohen has already incorporated expected earnings from the partnership into his first-quarter estimates, though he kept his price target at €400.
A Pivotal May Ahead
Shareholders have two key dates on the calendar. On May 7, the annual general meeting will vote on a proposed dividend of €17.10 per share, backed by a record operating profit of €17.4 billion for 2025. The agenda also includes a reform of executive compensation, tying it more closely to industry performance.
Six days later, the first-quarter report lands. For management, which has guided for another operating result in the region of €17.4 billion in 2026, the numbers will test whether the bullish case — or the insolvency warning — has the upper hand.
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