The sprawling industrial conglomerate that once defined German heavy industry is quietly remaking itself in the Baltic port of Wismar. Thyssenkrupp’s marine defense unit, TKMS, is ploughing roughly €200 million into a former cruise shipyard there, converting it into a hybrid facility capable of churning out submarines and surface warships side by side. If the order book fills as expected, the company envisions 1,500 new jobs at the site by the end of 2029.
The investment is no speculative bet. It is calibrated squarely against Canada’s C$37 billion submarine procurement program, for which TKMS is locked in a duel with South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean. Ottawa has demanded extensive revisions to initial proposals, pushing both bidders to resubmit by April 29. The Canadian government is insisting on deep technology transfers and binding local partnerships before awarding the contract for twelve Arctic-capable 212CD-class boats. A final decision is expected between May and June.
That timeline puts TKMS in a precarious waiting game — but the company has a domestic fallback. Germany’s F127 frigate program, for which TKMS is the sole remaining bidder, could provide a compensating stream of work. The Bundestag’s budget committee is scheduled to vote on funding on June 24. If Ottawa slips away, Berlin could keep the Wismar yard busy.
A Holding Company Takes Shape
While the naval arm builds capacity, the parent group is undergoing a transformation of a different order. CEO Miguel Lopez is pushing Thyssenkrupp toward a financial holding structure, and the next milestone comes on May 12, when the company publishes its half-year results. Investors are less interested in the quarterly numbers than in tangible evidence that the restructuring is accelerating.
The most concrete move under consideration involves Materials Services, the group’s trading and distribution division. According to Reuters, Thyssenkrupp is weighing three options: a spin-off, an initial public offering, or an outright sale. A decision could land as early as 2026, with an IPO theoretically possible by autumn if the division’s performance improves this quarter. One structure under review is a partnership limited by shares, which would allow the group to retain control even while selling down part of the business. Materials Services booked annual sales of €11.4 billion and employs more than 15,000 people. CFO Axel Hamann has identified artificial intelligence as a competitive edge — the unit is already the group’s most advanced user of AI for supply chain and customer service optimization.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Another potential value unlock sits in TK Elevator. The majority owners of the former Thyssenkrupp subsidiary are exploring an IPO in the second half of 2026 that could value the lift maker at up to €25 billion. Thyssenkrupp still holds 16.2 percent of the shares. A successful exit would release significant capital for green steel investments and debt reduction. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have already been mandated to manage the process.
Steel Bleeds, the Stock Sits Low
The contrast between the defense and elevator businesses and the core steel operation could hardly be starker. Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel is halting production at its French site in Isbergues from June through September 2026, affecting roughly 600 workers. The culprit is a surge in Asian imports — volumes have tripled since 2022 and jumped another 50 percent in 2025. Relief may come in July 2026 if the European Union’s planned trade defense measures take effect, but the timing remains uncertain.
The stock market reflects the tension. Thyssenkrupp shares trade at €8.97, roughly 25 percent above the March low of €7.15 but still a third below the 52-week peak of €13.24. The price remains below its 200-day moving average. Jefferies sees an opportunity, rating the stock a “Buy” with a €13 target — well above the consensus analyst estimate of €10.90. A technical indicator like the relative strength index has drifted into near-oversold territory, suggesting the selling may be overdone.
Catalysts on the Horizon
The next few weeks offer a series of potential triggers. The revised Canadian submarine proposals are due April 29. The half-year report lands May 12, and the F127 budget vote follows on June 24. For the stock to regain momentum, TKMS will need to deliver strong numbers that can offset the drag from the steel division on the group’s balance sheet.
The transformation is no longer theoretical. The holding company structure is taking shape, the naval yard in Wismar is being retooled, and the elevator stake is being readied for exit. Whether the market will reward the pace of change — or punish the lingering steel exposure — is the question that May 12 will begin to answer.
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