A looming shortage of tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆), a critical gas for semiconductor manufacturing, is creating a scramble for secure supplies. This crisis is casting a spotlight on Almonty Industries, a tungsten producer whose strategic moves over the past year have positioned it as a rare Western alternative. The company’s recent relocation of its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, underscores a deliberate shift to align itself closer with US national security interests and defense contractors.
The supply pinch is acute. Japanese producers Kanto Denka Kogyo and Central Glass, which supply about a quarter of the global WF₆ market, have warned customers of significant delivery disruptions in the second half of this year. According to a recent TrendForce report cited by analysts, existing stockpiles may only last until mid-2026. China’s export controls on tungsten are directly impacting the raw material supply chain, leaving chipmakers like Samsung particularly exposed. The industry’s pressure is evident in reports that semiconductor firms are drastically shortening the typical 18-month qualification period for new material suppliers.
In this tense environment, Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea, which officially commenced operations in March, is coming online at a critical moment. Its location places it geographically within reach of the affected Asian chipmakers. The mine is processing approximately 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with an average grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide—roughly triple the global average—and a projected mine life exceeding 45 years. For Western-leaning chip fabricators seeking alternatives to Chinese supply, Sangdong presents a structurally sound, near-term solution.
The financial markets are already pricing in the tension. Tungsten spot prices have surged from around $920 per metric tonne unit (MTU) at the start of the year to nearly $3,000 by early April. This rally has propelled Almonty’s stock, which has gained approximately 166% year-to-date and is trading near its 52-week high. Analyst sentiment has turned decidedly bullish. Texas Capital upgraded the stock to “Strong Buy” on April 18 with a $25.00 price target, joined by DA Davidson at $25.00 and B. Riley at $23.00. The current consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy.”
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
This optimism is rooted in substantial revenue projections. Analysts estimate 2026 sales could range from $466 million to $830 million, driven by Sangdong and the developing Gentung-Browns Lake project in Montana. For 2027, forecasts jump dramatically to between $2 billion and $3.65 billion, anticipating full production capacity. At current tungsten prices near $2,500 per MTU, analysts suggest net margins could approach 60% at full operation. The company’s goal is to supply about 40% of the global tungsten demand outside of China.
Operationally, Almonty is showing improvement. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 39% to C$8.7 million, contributing to full-year 2025 revenue of C$32.5 million, a 13% annual increase. The company bolstered its balance sheet with a Nasdaq IPO in July 2025 that raised $90 million, followed by a December capital raise that placed roughly 20.7 million shares for gross proceeds of $129.4 million. Year-end cash stood at C$268.4 million.
Key near-term catalysts are on the calendar. The board has until April 30 to finalize the terms of a shareholder-approved share consolidation (up to 5:1), a move often seen as a precursor to meeting certain exchange listing requirements. Investors will then scrutinize the quarterly report due May 21 for the first detailed production figures from Sangdong’s ramp-up phase. The annual meeting on June 8 is expected to provide details on a planned Phase-2 expansion that could double tungsten production from 2027.
While the company reported a quarterly loss in its most recent update, the market is clearly valuing its future potential. The convergence of a structural supply deficit, strategic asset positioning, and a clear path to scaling production has placed Almonty at the center of a critical materials narrative.
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