Gold is defying a classic market script. Despite signs of easing Middle East tensions, the precious metal notched its fourth consecutive weekly gain, closing Friday at $4,857.60 per ounce. This 1.5% daily advance brings its year-to-date surge to nearly 12%, steadily erasing the distance to its all-time high.
The catalyst for this counterintuitive move is deep-seated market skepticism. A proposed ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to trade, has been met with caution. Iran’s foreign minister linked the safe passage to a coordinated route through Iranian waters, a condition that has traders doubting the durability of peace. A concurrently weaker US dollar provided an additional lift for dollar-priced bullion.
All eyes now turn to a barrage of economic data and a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting, setting the stage for a critical stress test of gold’s recent momentum. The central event is the Fed’s policy decision on April 29-30. Markets have overwhelmingly priced in unchanged interest rates, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing a probability exceeding 99%. This expectation of sustained high rates acts as a significant cap on the non-yielding asset’s short-term upside potential.
Before Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, a series of key indicators will shape the policy outlook. This week’s calendar is packed: weekly US jobless claims and PMI data arrive on April 23, followed by the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations survey on April 24. These reports, alongside employment figures from April 21, will be scrutinized for clues on the Fed’s path.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Beyond immediate interest rate concerns, gold’s foundation is bolstered by powerful structural forces. Central banks continue their relentless accumulation. The World Gold Council forecasts official sector purchases of around 850 tonnes for the current year, mirroring the exceptionally high levels seen in 2025, when banks bought 863 tonnes. Notable buyers include Poland’s National Bank, which added 20 tonnes in February, and sustained net inflows in China and Uzbekistan.
This official demand is intertwined with a broader de-dollarization trend. BRICS nations now hold over 17% of global gold reserves, while the US dollar’s share of global forex reserves has slumped to a multi-decade low. A telling shift is underway: 59% of central banks now store at least a portion of their gold domestically, a marked increase from the previous year.
From a technical perspective, gold has stabilized after forming a double-bottom pattern. The area around $4,800 now serves as strong support. The immediate hurdle is the 50-day moving average near $4,907; a sustained break above this level could generate fresh buy signals. Should the rally falter amid strong US data, the broader support zone around $4,550 would come into view for traders. As long as support holds, the path toward the 52-week high of $5,450 remains open.
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