A landmark contract with the U.S. Department of Defense has provided a powerful counter-narrative to the recent bearish sentiment surrounding Palantir. The Pentagon has officially elevated Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system to a “Program of Record,” moving it from a prototype to a permanent, budgeted component of digital warfare. This strategic shift promises predictable, multi-year revenue streams and cements the company’s role as a fundamental defense contractor, following other major deals like a framework contract with the U.S. Army worth up to $10 billion.
This news fueled a significant rally, with shares gaining nearly 11% over the week to close at 120.48 EUR on Friday. Despite this rebound, the stock remains down roughly 16% year-to-date and trades about 15% below its 200-day moving average. The recent surge has created some distance from recent lows, with the next technical hurdle seen at the 50-day line around 122 EUR.
The defense win arrives just as a stark divide emerges among prominent investors ahead of Palantir’s first-quarter earnings report on May 4. Famed investor Michael Burry, who bet against the U.S. housing market in 2008, has publicly confirmed a short position. He cites competitive threats from companies like Anthropic and projects the stock could fall below $50, a view that contributed to a nearly 14% weekly drop recently—the stock’s worst week in a year.
On the opposite side, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives dismisses Burry’s thesis as a “fictional narrative” and maintains a $230 price target. He points to Palantir’s proprietary Ontology framework and its deep integration within enterprise and government systems. The Wall Street consensus remains moderately bullish, with 14 Buy ratings, 5 Holds, and 2 Sells, and an average price target of approximately $195. Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz, while still positive, recently adjusted his target down from $195 to $185 in light of the stock’s weakness.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?
All eyes are now on the upcoming quarterly results. For Q1 2026, Palantir has guided for revenue of about $1.53 billion and adjusted operating income of nearly $870 million. The full-year outlook calls for revenue between $7.18 and $7.20 billion, which would represent growth of around 61%. The company’s recent history of consistently raising guidance sets a high bar. Another beat could severely pressure the short thesis, while a miss might swiftly bring yearly lows back into view.
The commercial segment also shows explosive momentum, with U.S. commercial revenue soaring 137% year-over-year in the prior fourth quarter. Furthermore, Palantir enters this pivotal period from a position of financial strength, holding liquid assets of approximately $7.2 billion to fund its ambitious expansion.
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