Plug Power’s nascent financial recovery is facing an immediate challenge. The hydrogen fuel cell company, which recently posted its first positive gross margin in years, now contends with new U.S. tariffs threatening the very supply chain it has worked to restructure. This pressure arrives even as management points to an unexpected potential growth driver: powering the artificial intelligence boom.
The company’s fiscal 2025 revenue reached approximately $710 million, a 13 percent increase year-over-year. More significantly, the fourth quarter delivered a gross profit of $5.5 million, translating to a gross margin of 2.4 percent. This marks a dramatic reversal from a negative 122.5 percent margin in the same period a year prior, a turnaround credited to the internal cost-cutting initiative “Project Quantum Leap.”
That hard-won progress is now under threat. New 20 percent tariffs on Chinese components for its fuel cell business and European electrolyzer imports pose what the company openly calls short-term burdens. In response, management aims to reduce its reliance on Chinese suppliers by 50 percent within six months. Plug Power asserts its own electrolyzer platform remains largely unaffected by the duties as it works to shift sourcing to domestic partners.
Financing, however, appears more secure. The company ended 2025 with roughly $368.5 million in free liquidity. A signed agreement to sell its “Project Gateway” site to Stream Data Centers for at least $132.5 million is part of a broader plan to unlock over $275 million in liquidity, a program targeted for completion by mid-2026. Under new CEO Jose Luis Crespo, who took the helm in March 2026, the firm states its funding is secured through the end of next year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?
A persistent structural concern for long-term shareholders is massive share dilution. The number of outstanding shares has ballooned by approximately 700 percent over the past decade, with an increase of about 50 percent in the last twelve months alone. This means an investor from 2016 now holds just one-seventh of their original ownership stake, a headwind separate from operational performance.
Looking for new avenues of growth, Plug Power is targeting AI data centers. The company believes hydrogen fuel cells could provide reliable baseload power for facilities in remote locations where grid connection is expensive or unreliable. It specifically plans to deliver hydrogen infrastructure to data centers via the PJM electricity grid. Management sees AI operators as a new customer class potentially willing to pay a premium for swift, dependable energy.
Analyst sentiment remains cautious, casting a shadow over the stock’s recent rally. The average price target from 30 ratings sits at $3.64. The three most recent assessments from Susquehanna, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo average just $2.18, roughly 25 percent below the current trading level of EUR 2.39. Despite this skepticism, the share price has nearly quadrupled from its 52-week low and sits well above its 200-day moving average of EUR 1.89, having gained about 26 percent year-to-date and nearly 195 percent over twelve months.
The company’s overarching goal is to achieve a positive adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts project revenue could grow from the 2025 base to around $1.15 billion by 2028, implying an 18 percent annual growth rate. The upcoming quarterly report in May 2026 will serve as a critical check on whether the fledgling margin can withstand tariff pressures and if Crespo’s operational milestones are on track.
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