A tightening grip on critical mineral exports from China is sending shockwaves through the global technology sector. Asian semiconductor manufacturers are raising alarms, with Japanese suppliers warning of potential material shortages for industry giants like Samsung due to restricted access to tungsten. This emerging supply crisis arrives at a pivotal moment for Almonty Industries, which has recently revived one of the world’s largest dormant tungsten mines.
Financial Performance Reflects Investment Phase
Almonty’s latest financial results for the 2025 fiscal year present a picture of a company in a significant growth phase. Revenue increased by 13% to 32.5 million Canadian Dollars (CAD). However, this top-line growth was offset by substantially higher operational expenditures. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of 17 million CAD, primarily driven by a sharp 231% surge in general and administrative costs.
These investments are backed by a solid financial foundation. Following a capital raise in December, Almonty holds a robust war chest of 268.4 million CAD. This liquidity is earmarked for continued expansion, including the development of the Valtreix project in Montana, USA. That operation is scheduled to commence production in the second half of 2026, aiming to serve the North American market directly.
Sangdong Mine: A Well-Timed Revival
The centerpiece of Almonty’s strategy is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which officially commenced phase-one operations in mid-March 2026. The facility is projected to yield approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. A planned second-phase expansion in 2027 is expected to double this output. At full capacity from both phases, Sangdong could potentially satisfy an estimated 40% of global tungsten demand originating from outside China.
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This new supply enters a market facing severe constraints. Beyond the Asian supply chain issues, the United States will prohibit the import of Chinese tungsten for defense applications starting in 2027. This potent mix of geopolitical export controls and sustained demand propelled tungsten prices to surge by over 160% last year alone.
Market Analysts Revise Targets Upward
The confluence of operational progress and favorable macro conditions is generating notable optimism in the financial community. Almonty’s share price jumped more than 10% in a single day to 23.54 CAD. Several prominent research firms have issued updated, largely positive assessments:
- DA Davidson: Maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a price target of 25.00 U.S. Dollars.
- B. Riley Financial: Raised its price target to 23.00 U.S. Dollars.
- Oppenheimer: Rates the stock “Outperform” with a 19.00 U.S. Dollar target.
- Diamond Equity Research: Doubled its 2026 earnings per share estimate to 0.45 U.S. Dollars.
For the current valuation to be sustained long-term, Almonty must now demonstrate that the Sangdong mine can efficiently ramp up to its planned production volumes. The next critical milestone for the company, as it works to close the gap to its 52-week high, will be the seamless execution of the Phase 2 expansion next year.
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