In a notable display of confidence, SAP’s management is proposing a dividend increase to shareholders even as the company’s share price faces significant pressure. The software giant’s stock has declined approximately 28% since the start of the year and has nearly halved from its record high of €280. This creates a contrasting narrative between the operational optimism signaled by the board and the ongoing correction visible in the stock chart.
Proposed Payout and Historical Policy
The supervisory and executive boards will recommend an annual dividend of €2.50 per share at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. This represents a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. The total distribution would amount to roughly €2.9 billion, equating to a payout ratio of 40.7% of non-IFRS group profit. SAP has maintained an unbroken record of never reducing its dividend since its 1988 IPO. A recently updated dividend policy now formalizes a minimum payout of 40% of non-IFRS earnings.
Key dates for shareholders are set for May: the virtual Annual General Meeting on May 5, the ex-dividend date on May 6, and the payment date on May 8.
Economic Headwinds from Tariffs
The core tension for investors lies in SAP’s customer base. The company has deep traditional roots in the manufacturing sector—industries that are typically the most vulnerable to an economic slowdown triggered by tariffs. Market participants are concerned that industrial clients may postpone capital expenditures, which could, in turn, delay their planned migration to cloud-based solutions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
SAP’s direct exposure remains relatively contained. Less than 10% of its global revenue is generated in the Asia/Pacific region, including China. Furthermore, the company’s cloud-centric business model inherently makes it less susceptible to supply chain disruptions and customs barriers than traditional hardware manufacturers.
First-Quarter Results to Provide Clarity
All eyes will be on SAP’s forthcoming first-quarter 2026 results, scheduled for release on April 23. The primary metrics under scrutiny will be cloud revenue growth and the current cloud backlog. These figures are considered leading indicators for whether enterprise customers are continuing with their digital transformation plans despite broader economic uncertainty.
For the full 2026 fiscal year, analysts project an average revenue of €40.6 billion. This would imply a growth rate of about 10% compared to the trailing twelve-month period. The quarterly report in three weeks will be critical in assessing whether SAP can reaffirm this growth trajectory.
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