A regulatory review by Germany’s Federal Cartel Office has cast a shadow over the near-term prospects for OHB SE’s stock. News that the authority is examining the proposed formation of a joint venture between OHB and Rheinmetall Digital sent the aerospace group’s shares tumbling by more than nine percent at one point during Thursday’s trading session. This is not a routine procedural matter; the outcome governs access to one of the most substantial defense contracts in the history of Germany’s space sector.
A Multi-Billion Euro Initiative Awaits Approval
The consortium of OHB and Rheinmetall Digital formally notified the Cartel Office of its plans to establish a joint venture for specific functions on March 20, 2026, under case reference V-32/26. The objective is to submit a joint bid for the Bundeswehr’s “SATCOMBw Stage 4” project. This initiative aims to create a highly secure, satellite-based communications network comprising over 100 satellites, with an estimated contract value between eight and ten billion euros.
The consortium’s composition has since expanded to include aerospace giant Airbus. While Airbus’s involvement reduces OHB’s direct share of the work, it significantly bolsters the group’s chances of securing the contract. Under the proposed structure, OHB would be responsible for satellite construction, with Rheinmetall overseeing military system leadership and ground infrastructure. Analysis from NuWays estimates OHB’s portion at approximately one-third of the total project volume. This would translate to cumulative order intake of between 2.7 and 3.3 billion euros for the company.
Regulatory clearance is an absolute prerequisite for any further progress. Until the Cartel Office completes its examination, the formal project timeline remains uncertain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?
Robust Fundamentals Amidst Ambition
This period of regulatory uncertainty coincides with a phase of operational strength for OHB. The company’s revenue increased to 1.25 billion euros in 2025, up from 1.03 billion euros the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to 125.6 million euros. Notably, the order backlog reached a new record high of 3.19 billion euros, a significant jump from 2.38 billion euros a year earlier. In the fourth quarter alone, OHB achieved an EBITDA margin of 11.6%, surpassing its own full-year target for 2026.
Reflecting this positive operational performance, NuWays has raised its price target for OHB shares to 272 euros, up from 260 euros, and reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation. The analysis firm forecasts 2026 revenue of approximately 1.4 billion euros with an EBITDA margin of 10.7%.
Looking to the medium term, OHB is targeting total output exceeding two billion euros by 2028. The defense business, which currently accounts for roughly ten percent of group revenue, is viewed as a central growth driver. Analysts suggest that if military contracts scale over the next two years, an EBITDA margin above twelve percent is a realistic prospect. Further momentum is provided by the full consolidation, since October 2025, of subsidiary MT Aerospace, which holds a ten percent workshare in the Ariane 6 launcher program.
OHB is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 figures on May 7. Until then, developments in the Cartel Office review are likely to be the dominant theme for the share price. This is particularly true given a macroeconomic backdrop that appears exceptionally favorable, featuring planned German investments of 35 billion euros in military space infrastructure and an elevated ESA budget of 22.3 billion euros for the 2026-2028 period.
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