While Ørsted’s financial recovery is firmly on track, its ownership structure faces potential upheaval due to Denmark’s upcoming parliamentary election. The vote, scheduled for March 24, has ignited debate over the state’s controlling 50.1% stake in the offshore wind leader, even as the company reports robust operational performance.
Solid Financial Performance Provides Backdrop
Operationally, Ørsted’s progress is clear. For 2025, its EBITDA—excluding new partnership agreements and cancellation fees—reached 25.1 billion Danish kroner, landing within the target range of 24 to 27 billion kroner. Net profit stood at 3.2 billion kroner.
The company’s 2025–2026 divestment program was completed ahead of schedule and yielded higher proceeds than anticipated. Notably, Ørsted agreed to sell its entire European onshore wind business to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for 1.44 billion euros (approximately 10.7 billion kroner), with completion expected in the second quarter of 2026. In total, agreed divestment proceeds amount to roughly 46 billion kroner, significantly surpassing the original target of more than 35 billion.
Segment performance in the fourth quarter was mixed. The offshore wind unit exceeded expectations by about 4%, according to calculations by Jefferies, benefiting from lower development costs and stronger asset performance, though partially offset by negative construction contract earnings. The onshore wind segment delivered EBITDA of 1.36 billion kroner, beating consensus estimates by approximately 24%, largely due to gains from divestments. Conversely, the bioenergy unit missed forecasts by around 11%, reporting 650 million kroner in EBITDA.
Election Puts State Ownership in the Crosshairs
The political landscape introduces significant uncertainty. As reported by Finans, four right-leaning political parties in Denmark are demanding a plan for the state to exit its majority holding in Ørsted following the election. A fifth party, the Liberals from the governing coalition, would not oppose such a move. Collectively, these five parties control about 40% of the current parliamentary seats.
Some representatives have suggested that assets critical to Denmark’s energy infrastructure should be spun off prior to any sale. The timing is particularly sensitive. Just last October, the Danish government participated in a rescue package, covering half of a 60-billion-kroner (about 9.4 billion US dollars) capital raise that Ørsted required to navigate the crisis in the wind power industry.
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Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the snap election after her approval ratings surged following her firm response to US annexation interests in Greenland. However, current polling suggests a left-leaning government is more likely, and such a coalition has not advocated for selling Ørsted. The latest DR poll indicates the five right-wing parties would likely secure 74 of the 179 parliamentary seats—falling short of a majority.
Guidance and Analyst Confidence Remain Strong
Looking ahead to 2026, Ørsted forecasts EBITDA exceeding 28 billion kroner (excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees). Gross investments are projected to be between 50 and 55 billion kroner.
Analyst sentiment has turned more positive. On February 26, Berenberg raised its price target on Ørsted shares from 140 to 180 kroner and reaffirmed its buy recommendation. The analysts pointed to a cautious restart of long-term growth planning after months of high volatility.
With over three decades of experience in offshore wind, Ørsted’s installed offshore capacity stands at 10.2 gigawatts, with a further 8.1 gigawatts under construction. Its total installed renewable energy capacity exceeds 18 gigawatts.
The company is scheduled to release its next quarterly results on May 6, 2026. Until the March 24 election, the debate over state ownership is expected to be a key sentiment driver for the stock, despite the company’s solid financial guidance.
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