Following a historic surge, shares of Almonty Industries experienced a notable pullback on Tuesday. The tungsten producer’s stock came under pressure from profit-taking activity, though the core fundamental drivers behind its recent revaluation remain firmly in place. Structural supply constraints for tungsten and ongoing geopolitical developments continue to support the case for a higher valuation.
A Sharp Pullback from Record Levels
The stock opened with a gap down at $17.94, a significant drop from its previous closing price of $20.72. In recent trading, the equity was quoted at $17.22, with trading volume reaching 3.8 million shares.
This retreat comes on the heels of an extraordinary rally. By March 3, 2026, the share price had reached $19.34, representing a gain of nearly 34% within a single week. This move followed the stock achieving a new 52-week high of CAD $23.67.
Structural Tungsten Shortage Underpins Valuation Shift
The dramatic revaluation is fueled by a global tungsten shortage of historic proportions. China, which controls an estimated 75-80% of worldwide supply, significantly tightened export restrictions in late 2025. Analysis from BMO Capital Markets indicated that certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt during this period.
Tungsten prices soared by over 160% in 2025 and have continued their upward trajectory into the first weeks of 2026. BMO anticipates no relief on the supply side for 2026, while inventory levels continue to decline.
CEO Lewis Black recently described the situation as a “real, legitimate supply squeeze.” He noted that for the first time in decades, tungsten pricing is behaving independently of historical control mechanisms, with customers currently accepting the higher costs.
Geopolitical Factors Elevate Strategic Profile
Regulatory changes are amplifying Almonty’s strategic importance. A U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten in military applications is set to take effect in 2027. Concurrently, new procurement rules from the U.S. Department of Defense exclude material originating from China, Russia, or North Korea.
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Flagship Sangdong Mine Ramps Up
The company commenced commercial mining at its Sangdong operation in South Korea in December 2025. The facility is viewed as strategically critical for establishing a China-independent supply chain for the United States and its allies. The phased ramp-up to full production capacity is proceeding according to plan and is targeted for completion by 2027.
Almonty forecasts that Sangdong will ultimately satisfy approximately 40% of tungsten demand outside of China. A planned Phase-II expansion, also slated for 2027, is expected to boost annual capacity to up to 1.2 million metric tonnes. Additionally, the company is advancing a project in Montana, which is anticipated to be production-ready in the second half of 2026.
Analyst Community Raises Price Targets Substantially
The powerful rally triggered a wave of analyst upgrades. Couloir Capital increased its valuation by more than 150%, lifting its target from CAD $7.69 to CAD $19.30. DA Davidson raised its price objective from $12 to $18 in early February. B. Riley Financial adjusted its target to $17, while Oppenheimer initiated coverage on February 5, 2026, with an “Outperform” rating and a $16 target.
Institutional Investors Build Significant Positions
The number of institutional shareholders grew by over 55% in the most recent quarter, reaching 107. Van Eck Associates expanded its position by a remarkable 13,295% and now holds 11.24 million shares valued at approximately $99 million. Other major new entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors (holding around $25.6 million) and Next Century Growth Investors (holding roughly $16.3 million).
To fund its growth initiatives, Almonty completed two U.S. capital raises in 2025, generating gross proceeds exceeding $219 million.
Market Awaits Quarterly Results on March 19
Investor attention now turns to Almonty’s quarterly financial report, scheduled for release on March 19. This update will reveal the initial financial impact of higher tungsten prices and the ongoing production ramp-up. The operational execution throughout 2026 will be crucial for the stock’s future trajectory, particularly the smooth expansion of production and the achievement of targeted output volumes.
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