From a low-priced equity to a multi-billion dollar market presence, shares of the tungsten specialist Almonty Industries are experiencing unprecedented momentum. Investors are now questioning whether the recent record highs represent just the start of a fundamental re-rating for the company, driven by soaring commodity prices and the launch of a flagship production asset.
Operational Milestones Drive Confidence
The core of the current investor enthusiasm stems from tangible operational progress. The company initiated commercial production at its strategic Sangdong mine in South Korea in December 2025. Management is now advancing a phased ramp-up toward achieving full capacity by 2027. This asset is considered critical for Western nations actively seeking alternatives to Chinese raw material supplies. At full operation, Sangdong is projected to account for over 80% of the world’s tungsten production outside of China.
Beyond this cornerstone project, Almonty is advancing other initiatives, including capacity expansion at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and the development of a molybdenum project.
A Tight Tungsten Market Provides the Catalyst
The operational narrative is powerfully supported by market fundamentals. The primary driver is a severely constrained market for ammonium paratungstate (APT). Prices exceeding $1,000 per metric ton unit (MTU) indicate acute scarcity. Analysts at Couloir Capital point to robust demand from the defense sector and export restrictions from China, which are structurally tightening supply. The research firm responded by significantly raising its long-term price forecast for APT.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Analyst Community Raises Targets
This combination of company-specific execution and favorable market conditions has prompted several research houses to revise their valuations upward, reflecting in a series of upgraded price targets:
* Sphene Capital increased its target to 20.10 CAD in an early February update.
* DA Davidson now assesses the fair value at 18 USD.
* B. Riley Securities raised its target to 17 USD on February 13.
The market has already priced in considerable optimism. On Thursday, the stock reached a new all-time high of 23.67 CAD on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Trading under high volume on the NASDAQ, shares climbed to 17.31 USD. The company’s market valuation has ballooned to approximately 5.87 billion CAD—a remarkable trajectory for a stock that traded at 2.19 CAD just twelve months ago.
The Fundamental Counterpoint
Despite the euphoria, a review of the financials introduces a note of caution. Almonty remains in a transitional phase and is not yet profitable, which is reflected in a negative price-to-earnings ratio. Furthermore, according to TSX reporting, the balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of around 225%, underscoring the company’s dependence on the successful execution of its operational plans.
The critical test for whether these elevated commodity prices will translate to the bottom line will come on March 26, 2026. On this date, Almonty is scheduled to release its first financial results since the commencement of commercial production—a pivotal moment for validating the current market valuation.
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