Shares of the tungsten specialist Almonty Industries have surged to record levels, propelled by a powerful combination of operational execution and strategic geopolitical tailwinds. The equity, having advanced approximately 25% in a single week, is attracting significant market attention as fundamental developments reshape its investment thesis.
Operational Milestone: Sangdong Mine Transitions to Production
A key driver behind the recent momentum is the company’s successful transition from developer to active producer. At its flagship Sangdong operation in South Korea, the critical shift to commercial production is now underway. The initial shipments of ore commenced in December, with material currently progressing through the crushing, milling, and flotation circuits as the operation moves toward stabilized output.
The growth pathway is clearly defined. A planned Phase-II expansion, targeted for completion by 2027, is set to elevate annual capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes. At full operational run-rate, the Sangdong mine is projected to supply over 460,000 Metric Tonne Units (MTU) of tungsten each year.
Geopolitical Windfall: U.S. Moves to Secure Critical Supply Chains
Concurrently, a major strategic initiative from Washington has provided substantial political and commercial backing. In early February 2026, the U.S. government announced an expansion of its “Project Vault,” a program designed to build national reserves of more than 50 critical minerals. The primary objective is a drastic reduction in dependency on Chinese imports.
This policy shift creates an ideal scenario for Almonty. With China currently controlling over 80% of global tungsten production, Western producers are gaining heightened importance for U.S. strategic security interests, particularly for defense and advanced technology sectors. Almonty is positioned directly within this focus.
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Favorable Market Dynamics and Revised Analyst Targets
The company’s progress coincides with a period of exceptional tightness in the tungsten market. Stricter export controls and reduced production quotas in China have exerted intense upward pressure on prices. Benchmark prices for Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) reached between $1,200 and $1,250 per MTU by mid-January.
This favorable confluence of events has prompted market analysts to significantly revise their valuations upward in February:
* Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its price target, raising it from CAD 11.00 to approximately CAD 20.00.
* Sphene Capital increased its target from CAD 13.50 to CAD 20.10.
Both firms cited elevated commodity prices and tangible project advancements as the core reasons for their increased optimism.
Financial Strength and the Road Ahead
Almonty’s balance sheet was fortified in anticipation of this growth phase. A December 2025 capital raise injected gross proceeds of $129.4 million into the company, securing funding for further scaling efforts. The focus now extends to the second half of 2026, when the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, USA, is expected to achieve production readiness. This milestone would further solidify Almonty’s role as a strategic North American supplier.
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