While recent turbulence in the semiconductor sector, partly driven by mixed signals from competitors, has affected many industry players, the focus is now shifting back to the underlying fundamentals at Dutch equipment giant ASML. Despite the market digesting the broader implications of AMD’s latest figures, a surge in new orders and renewed backing from major financial institutions is prompting investors to consider whether the recent share price consolidation presents a strategic entry point.
Operational Strength in Black and White
The confidence expressed by institutional analysts is grounded in concrete operational data, not speculative trends. For the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML reported a dramatic increase in net new bookings. Order intake soared to €13.15 billion, representing a year-over-year surge of approximately 88%. This leap has substantially fortified the company’s order backlog, providing significant visibility and predictability for its business in the coming year.
Management’s forward guidance reflects this strength, projecting total revenue for 2026 to land between €34 billion and €39 billion. This outlook builds upon a full-year 2025 performance that saw the company generate revenue of €32.7 billion and a net profit of €9.6 billion.
Wall Street Endorsements Provide Momentum
Positive analyst commentary has helped stabilize the equity following earlier pressure at the start of the week, which occurred in the wake of AMD’s results. Strategists at JPMorgan reaffirmed their “Overweight” rating on Thursday. Notably, their assessment implies substantial upside potential from current levels, estimating the stock could appreciate by more than 30%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML?
This optimistic view was echoed by Swiss banking powerhouse UBS, which raised its price target and reiterated a clear “Buy” recommendation. For market participants, these endorsements serve as a critical signal that, in the professional judgment of these firms, the artificial intelligence-driven demand boom for semiconductors is far from over.
Shareholder Returns Complement Growth
Beyond its core operational growth, ASML is also accelerating the return of capital to its shareholders. The company has an ongoing share repurchase program valued at €12 billion, which is set to run through the end of 2028. Further reports pointing to rising dividend payments enhance the stock’s appeal for income-focused investors.
Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, ASML remains the cornerstone of the global chip manufacturing infrastructure due to its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. The combination of a record order book and an active buyback initiative is expected to provide underlying support for the share price in the months ahead.
Closing at $1,350.16 on Thursday, ASML shares have gained nearly 10% over a 30-day period.
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