Investor confidence is returning to MP Materials after a period of significant uncertainty. The stock, which had been pressured by concerns over shifting government guarantees, found support following a major policy announcement from President Trump. The unveiling of a new national initiative to stockpile critical minerals has refocused the market on the strategic importance of the rare earths producer, with shares rising in after-hours trading.
“Project Vault” Aims to Secure Supply Chains
The catalyst for the shift in sentiment was the launch of “Project Vault,” a program designed to build a strategic reserve of minerals essential for electric vehicles, defense systems, and advanced technology. The move is explicitly intended to reduce American reliance on Chinese supplies. The project will mobilize approximately $12 billion, funded through a combination of private capital and a $10 billion loan facility from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
This development is seen as a direct signal of political backing for MP Materials. The company operates the sole active rare earth mine in the United States at its Mountain Pass facility. In response to the news, the equity advanced just over two percent in extended trading, showing signs of stabilization.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?
Existing Price Guarantee Remains Intact, Easing Concerns
The announcement arrived as investors were grappling with recent volatility. Shares had declined more than 10% last week following reports that the U.S. administration might cease offering minimum price guarantees for future commodity projects. A crucial clarification has now provided relief: any potential policy shift would apply only to new agreements moving forward.
The existing partnership between MP Materials and the Department of Defense, established in July 2025, remains fully protected. The company continues to benefit from a ten-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for its neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) output. This guarantee is a significant competitive advantage. For instance, while competitor USA Rare Earth recently secured a financing commitment of $1.6 billion, it did not include the same type of valuable price protection that MP Materials already holds.
Whether this renewed political support will translate into a sustained recovery for the stock will become clearer later this month. MP Materials is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the market closes on February 26, 2026. Beyond the core numbers, investor attention will be firmly on the progress update for its magnet manufacturing facilities in Texas.
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