A critical pillar of Intel’s strategic overhaul is gaining momentum, providing the semiconductor giant with a much-needed tailwind. Recent industry reports suggest the company is engaging in preliminary discussions with major technology firms, including Apple and Nvidia, regarding future manufacturing capacity. For shareholders, the central question is whether these early talks will eventually translate into substantial, long-term foundry contracts.
Solid Q4 Performance Meets a Challenging 2026 Outlook
The investment narrative for Intel is currently shaped by a mix of recent operational performance and forward-looking concerns. On January 22, the company released fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed operational expectations, though its guidance introduced significant near-term caution.
- Q4 2025 Revenue: $13.7 billion, exceeding expectations of approximately $13.4 billion.
- Q4 2025 EPS: $0.15 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.08.
- Q1 2026 Outlook: Management projected earnings per share near zero, attributing this not to weak demand but to significant supply constraints.
According to Intel, these constraints stem from the complex ramp-up of its Advanced Packaging capabilities and new process nodes. This explanation presents a difficult paradox for the market: strong demand is being met with operational bottlenecks that are pressuring financial results in the short term.
Strategic Talks with Tech Titans Underpin Foundry Strategy
Industry reports from February 1 indicate that Intel is in early-stage conversations with Apple and Nvidia about manufacturing future chip designs. The discussions are said to focus on later-generation process technologies with a timeline extending through 2028.
This development is strategically significant as it aligns with the core of Intel’s “IDM 2.0” plan, which aims not only to manufacture its own chips but also to compete directly with TSMC as a contract foundry. Securing potential “anchor customers” would lend considerable credibility to this long-term vision, even if the talks are explicitly in a preliminary phase.
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Furthermore, these rumors provide a counter-narrative to concerns that emerged in late 2025. A Reuters report on December 24, 2025, stated that Nvidia had halted a specific test of Intel’s 18A manufacturing node. The fact that discussions are now reportedly occurring about even later nodes (potentially including 14A) suggests that major chip designers continue to monitor Intel’s technology roadmap closely. A key motivation for these companies is the desire to diversify their supply chains and reduce reliance on a single manufacturer.
Leadership Focus and Volatile Market Sentiment
Since taking the helm in March 2025, CEO Lip-Bu Tan has emphasized execution and the successful delivery of the 18A and 14A process roadmaps. The company has acknowledged that the “supply trough” is expected in the first quarter of 2026, with a recovery anticipated in the second half of the year.
This tension between weak short-term guidance and a promising long-term transformation story is fueling notable volatility in the stock. Despite the cautious Q1 forecast, Intel’s shares have recently posted significant gains. The stock currently trades at $45.45, well above its 200-day moving average of $28.09.
Looking ahead, the next major catalysts for the share price are likely to be concrete developments rather than technical patterns. Two key events would serve as direct drivers: an official confirmation of the foundry discussions with major clients and progress updates on 18A production yields. These updates would directly address market questions about the credibility and timeline of Intel’s foundry ambitions.
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