Friday brought into focus significant strategic developments for the semiconductor giant Nvidia. The company finds itself balancing potential market access in China against renewed regulatory scrutiny in Washington, all while reportedly orchestrating a colossal investment to solidify its industry position.
A Potential Thaw in China Relations
Market sentiment received a boost from reports suggesting a possible easing of export restrictions to China. According to these reports, Chinese regulators have granted preliminary approval for local AI startups and major tech firms—including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent—to purchase Nvidia’s high-performance H200 chips. The startup DeepSeek is also named among the potential beneficiaries.
The final terms are reportedly being finalized by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). For Nvidia, this represents a critical opportunity to retain a foothold in the vital Asian revenue market despite stringent U.S. sanctions. The H200 is considered an essential component for training large language models.
Strategic Ambition: A Reported $30 Billion OpenAI Stake
Separate from the regulatory landscape, Nvidia is reportedly working to dramatically expand its influence. Insiders suggest the chipmaker is considering an investment of up to $30 billion in OpenAI. This move would form part of a broader funding round that could value the creator of ChatGPT at as much as $830 billion.
Such a deal would fundamentally alter Nvidia’s role, transforming it from a pure hardware supplier into a central financial pillar of the global AI infrastructure. Amazon and Microsoft are also reported to be participants in this funding round.
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Renewed Scrutiny from U.S. Lawmakers
The optimism from the China reports is tempered by renewed political pressure from the United States. In a letter to the Commerce Department, John Moolenaar, chair of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party in the U.S. House of Representatives, warned that Nvidia’s technology could indirectly support China’s military modernization.
DeepSeek is a particular focus of these concerns. Fears exist that its AI models could be integrated into systems used by the People’s Liberation Army. The congressman is calling for strict enforcement of export controls to prevent high-performance chips from reaching sanctioned end users.
Analyst Sentiment Stays Bullish
Despite the political risks, the fundamental outlook on Wall Street remains positive. Analysts see further potential in Nvidia’s combination of hardware dominance and strategic partnerships, such as its recently announced robotaxi collaboration with Mercedes-Benz and Uber.
- Bernstein: Reiterates an “Outperform” rating with a price target of $275.
- Wolfe Research: Raises its price target from $250 to $275.
Investors will receive their next concrete reality check on February 25, 2026, when Nvidia releases its fourth-quarter earnings. With the stock currently trading around $187—just shy of its 52-week high of $190.53—these results will need to demonstrate whether the lofty expectations are justified.
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