Intel Corporation delivered a week of contrasting signals to investors, creating a volatile trading pattern defined by near-term operational challenges versus long-term strategic potential. The chipmaker’s shares experienced significant swings as quarterly results and forward guidance clashed with optimistic reports about its foundry business.
Foundry Rumors Spark a Midweek Reversal
Market sentiment shifted dramatically on Wednesday following a DigiTimes report. The publication suggested that both Nvidia and Apple are evaluating Intel Foundry Services for portions of their chip production starting in 2028. While not an immediate revenue catalyst, such a move would represent a major vote of confidence in Intel’s manufacturing technology.
The report outlined several key considerations:
* Nvidia is reportedly assessing Intel for certain I/O die components of its anticipated “Feynman” GPU generation, potentially utilizing Intel’s 18A or 14A process nodes.
* Intel could also manage up to 25% of the final packaging using its EMIB (Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge) technology.
* Apple is said to be in discussions concerning entry-level variants of its M-series chips.
DigiTimes cited geopolitical factors, U.S. manufacturing requirements, and capacity constraints at the dominant TSMC as primary drivers. This highlights a growing customer focus on diversified and resilient supply chains, alongside pure performance metrics.
Solid Q4 Earnings Overshadowed by Cautious Guidance
The initial market reaction earlier in the week was negative, driven by management’s outlook. This came despite Intel reporting fourth-quarter 2025 financials that exceeded Wall Street forecasts.
Revenue for the period reached $13.7 billion, a 4% year-over-year decline. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.15, substantially higher than the $0.04 consensus estimate. Growth was notably fueled by the Data Center and AI segment, which saw revenue increase to $4.7 billion, a 9% gain.
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The disappointment stemmed from the first-quarter 2026 forecast. Intel projected revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with a GAAP EPS loss of $0.21 and a gross margin of approximately 34.5%. Management further cautioned that available supply would be at its lowest point in Q1, with improvements not expected until the second quarter. This outlook prompted an immediate sell-off following the earnings release.
The Pivotal Role of the 18A Process Node
Intel’s broader turnaround strategy remains heavily dependent on the success of its advanced 18A manufacturing process. On the recent earnings call, CEO Lip-Bu Tan expressed encouragement, pointing to steadily improving production yields.
However, the challenge is underscored by a Reuters report from December 2024, which indicated that Nvidia had tested the 18A node but initially decided against adopting it. This illustrates the high competitive bar set by industry leader TSMC.
Intel has noted additional stability from a confirmed $5 billion equity investment by Nvidia. The company also reported that its 18A process has now entered high-volume manufacturing at facilities in Arizona and Oregon.
So, what does this mean for Intel’s stock? The current rally appears less tied to next quarter’s performance and more to the possibility that Intel Foundry can establish itself as a credible alternative for major clients by 2028.
Shares closed the week at $48.23, marking an impressive 31% gain over the preceding 30 days. This volatility demonstrates how sensitively the market is reacting to any news related to Intel’s foundry ambitions. The next key milestone will likely be the subsequent quarterly report, expected on April 23, 2026, which will provide an update on the Q1 trajectory and the anticipated supply improvement for the second quarter.
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