The price of gold has surged to an unprecedented $5,092.71 per ounce, creating a powerful tailwind for major producers like Barrick Gold. While the company’s shares have rallied 130% in 2025, its strategic future hinges on critical decisions involving a key partner and internal leadership.
Unprecedented Gold Rally Provides Foundation
This latest peak continues a remarkable rally, with the precious metal appreciating 64% so far in 2025. Breaking the $5,000 barrier is viewed as a significant milestone for the industry. Several interconnected factors are fueling this ascent:
* Sustained safe-haven demand driven by ongoing geopolitical instability.
* Consistent central bank purchases, averaging 60 tonnes per month.
* Record inflows into gold-backed ETFs, exceeding $89 billion in 2025.
* A comparatively weaker U.S. dollar, enhancing gold’s appeal for international buyers.
Market researchers at Metals Focus project the bullion price could climb toward $5,500 later this year. Similarly, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target to $5,400 per ounce, citing structural investor demand as a hedge against macroeconomic and fiscal uncertainties.
Planned Spinoff Faces Partner Hurdle
A central element of Barrick’s strategy is the proposed separation and public listing of its North American assets. However, this plan encounters a major obstacle due to its partnership with Newmont. The joint venture Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) is 61.5% owned by Barrick and 38.5% by Newmont.
Documents reviewed by Reuters reveal that Barrick must first offer its NGM stake to Newmont before any sale to third parties. Furthermore, any transfer requires Newmont’s consent. This structure grants the minority partner considerable influence over Barrick’s strategic options.
The intended spinoff entity would include NGM, the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic, and the Fourmile project in Nevada. Analysts estimate the North American portfolio’s value at approximately $42 billion, with potential for a valuation premium as a standalone company.
Fourmile Financing Remains a Question
The development of the Fourmile project presents another complexity. Barrick has positioned it as a potential top-ten global gold producer, but its expansion requires capital commitments from Newmont. In October 2025, Newmont’s incoming CEO Natasha Viljoen indicated her company would await further information before making a final decision. Without this commitment, a cornerstone of the spinoff could be jeopardized.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?
Management in Transition Amid Investor Scrutiny
The company is navigating a leadership transition, with Mark Hill serving as interim CEO following the departure of long-time chief Mark Bristow. The recent appointment of Helen Cai as CFO aims to stabilize the executive team and rebuild market confidence.
Simultaneously, pressure from significant shareholders is mounting. Alongside BlackRock, activist investor Elliott Management has built a substantial position. Both groups are advocating for a clear restructuring strategy. Barrick intends to outline its plans alongside its Q4 2025 results, scheduled for release on February 5.
Valuation and Operational Developments
Despite its strong annual performance, Barrick’s five-year gain of 52% lags behind competitor Agnico Eagle’s 142% advance over the same period. From a valuation perspective, the stock currently trades at 13.2 times expected earnings, notably below its ten-year average of 20 times earnings. Market participants see room for a re-rating if the company successfully executes its strategic projects.
On Friday, shares on the Toronto exchange advanced 1.90%, buoyed by sector-wide strength.
Operationally, a significant risk has been mitigated in Mali. After the military government temporarily seized a company mine and detained staff in 2025, Barrick has since secured an agreement ensuring the facility’s return and the employees’ release.
Looking ahead, the market’s focus will center on two key issues: the final structure of the North American spinoff and Newmont’s stance regarding NGM and Fourmile. Combined with the robust gold price environment, these factors will be crucial for Barrick’s medium-term share performance and the positioning of both mining giants in the global gold market.
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