As the 2026 trading year gets underway, Strategy carries significant baggage from a disastrous prior period. The company’s share price remains deeply depressed compared to its highs, even as the value of its Bitcoin reserves reaches unprecedented levels. This situation highlights a core discrepancy: the market is valuing the firm substantially below the worth of its crypto assets. The question for investors is how sustainable this valuation gap truly is.
The Persistent Downtrend
The previous year, 2025, saw Strategy’s stock emerge as one of the technology sector’s poorest performers and the weakest constituent within the Nasdaq 100 index. Looking back over twelve months, the shares show a loss of approximately 48%. The current price sits more than 61% below its 52-week peak and roughly 13% above its low.
From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook remains challenging. The equity is trading well below all its key moving averages, with a distance of about 45% from the 200-day line. Although an RSI reading above 80 indicates the stock is overbought in the short term, the dominant trend continues to point downward. Several market observers identify a potential next support zone around the $100 mark, which would represent another significant decline from present levels.
Market Cap Versus Crypto Holdings
The central narrative revolves around the widening gap between Strategy’s market capitalization and its Bitcoin treasury. The company concluded 2025 with a record holding of 672,497 BTC. Based on a Bitcoin price of around $88,000, the notional value of this position sums to approximately $59 billion.
Contrasting this is a current market capitalization of only about $44.6 billion. Consequently, the stock is trading at a pronounced discount to its estimated net asset value. Implicitly, the market is assigning a negative value to the core software business—a clear expression of deep skepticism regarding the financing model and the firm’s dependence on a volatile cryptocurrency market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?
Key Metrics at a Glance
- Bitcoin Holdings: 672,497 BTC
- Estimated Value of Bitcoin Position: ~$59 billion
- Current Market Capitalization: ~$44.6 billion
- Discount to Estimated NAV: ~$14 billion
Continued Bitcoin Accumulation Amid Share Price Weakness
Despite severe share price depreciation, management has adhered to its aggressive accumulation strategy. In December 2025 alone, an additional 1,229 Bitcoin were purchased for roughly $108.8 million. These acquisitions were financed through further share issuances, a dilutive action likely contributing to additional downward pressure on the stock.
The average acquisition cost for the entire Bitcoin portfolio stands at approximately $75,000 per coin, meaning the position remains in profit based on current assumptions. Simultaneously, the company controls a substantial portion of all corporate-held Bitcoin, thereby taking on significant leverage risk: fluctuations in the crypto market have a disproportionately large impact on the share price.
Mixed Sentiment: Analyst Optimism Meets Sector Caution
A segment of the analyst community maintains a confident outlook. Bernstein recently reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating with a $450 price target, citing a balance sheet viewed as well-secured and substantial cash reserves from the research firm’s perspective.
However, the broader sector sentiment is notably more cautious. A Fear & Greed Index reading of 32 signals prevailing fear. Some experts anticipate potential tailwinds in the second half of 2026 from institutional ETF inflows. Others warn of structural demand risks and the potential for softer prices in the opening months of the year.
A Highly Leveraged Crypto Bet
In summary, Strategy’s shares currently function as a powerfully leveraged play on stabilization or recovery in the cryptocurrency market. The deep discount to the theoretical asset base does create theoretical room for a strong rebound should market conditions improve. Yet, as long as the downtrend remains intact and financing relies on new share issuance, the risk of further correction dominates the narrative—with the $100 area looming as the next potential target.
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