As 2025 draws to a close, Ethereum presents a market conundrum. On one side, technical charts paint a concerning picture, while on the other, a significant withdrawal of coins from readily available supplies is underway. This divergence between price pressure and underlying on-chain strength is creating a pivotal moment for the asset.
Institutional Players Seize the Moment
Beneath the surface of a sluggish market, a clear trend of accumulation by major holders is emerging. These entities are leveraging the price weakness to amass substantial positions, effectively pulling liquidity from the market.
- BitMine Immersion Technologies executed a major purchase on December 23, acquiring 67,886 ETH valued at approximately $201 million. This brings the firm’s total holdings to 4.066 million ETH, representing about 3.37% of the circulating supply. The company’s long-term strategy, internally dubbed the “Alchemy of 5%,” aims to control 5% of all Ethereum.
- Trend Research has also accelerated its buying activity. An additional 46,379 ETH was added on December 24, raising its total balance to roughly 580,000 ETH. This positions Trend Research as one of the largest private holders, trailing behind SharpLink Gaming (859,853 ETH) and BitMine.
Technical Indicators Flash Warning Signs
The price action tells a different story. Ethereum is currently trading near $2,937, a level notably below its 52-week high of $4,689. It also sits roughly 5% under its 50-day moving average of about $3,095. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 42 indicates a neutral-to-weak market sentiment.
From a chart perspective, analysts point to several bearish signals. A “Death Cross” formation, where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day average, suggests deteriorating momentum. Furthermore, some identify a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, which could—in a negative scenario—open the door for a retreat toward $2,400 or even $2,000.
In the near term, the zone around $2,800 is viewed as critical support. On the upside, buyers are likely to encounter significant resistance between $3,060 and $3,300. Overall, Q4 has been a weak period, ranking among Ethereum’s most challenging final quarters in several years.
ETF Outflows and Manager Movements
Providing some counterbalance to the accumulation narrative, regulated investment products have recently seen outflows. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net withdrawals of around $95.5 million on December 23, indicating a portion of institutional demand is currently being reduced through these vehicles.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?
In a related move, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, was active on December 24. On-chain data reveals a deposit of Ethereum worth $29 million to Coinbase Prime. This transaction coincided with outflows from the ETHA ETF the previous day, suggesting activity related to liquidity management and share redemptions.
On-Chain Metrics Point to Structural Scarcity
Blockchain data reveals a fundamentally bullish supply trend that contrasts with short-term price weakness:
- Declining Exchange Reserves: Over the past twelve months, the amount of Ethereum held on centralized exchanges has dropped from 20.8 million ETH to 16.4 million ETH. This withdrawal of 4.4 million ETH implies more coins are moving into cold storage or staking contracts, rendering them unavailable for immediate sale.
- Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have increased their collective balance from approximately 17 million to over 21 million ETH in the same period, demonstrating aggressive buying by large players.
- Continued Staking Growth: Nearly 29.4% of Ethereum’s total supply is now staked. BitMine further plans to commit its extensive holdings to staking starting in 2026 via the “Made in America Validator Network” (MAVAN), a move that would further constrict the freely circulating supply.
Collectively, these factors are building the foundation for a potential supply shock, with an increasing amount of ETH being locked for the long term while available units on exchanges dwindle.
Ecosystem and Market Updates
Other notable developments within the Ethereum network ecosystem include:
- Cryptocurrency exchange Binance conducted scheduled maintenance on its Ethereum wallets on December 25. Deposits and withdrawals were temporarily suspended, though trading continued uninterrupted.
- Prominent crypto investor Arthur Hayes sold roughly 1,871 ETH (valued at about $5.53 million) last week. He reportedly redeployed the capital into DeFi tokens such as ENA, PENDLE, and ETHFI, signaling a tactical rotation into higher-risk protocols within the crypto sector.
Conclusion: The $2,800 Support Holds the Key
Ethereum enters the year’s end caught between opposing forces. A weak quarterly performance, bearish chart patterns, and ETF outflows are weighed against massive accumulation by large addresses and rapidly declining exchange balances. For the near term, the support region around $2,800 remains the critical focal point. If this level holds, the thesis of a gradually tightening supply—despite current market hesitancy—will retain its significance.
Ad
Ethereum Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Ethereum Analysis from December 24 delivers the answer:
The latest Ethereum figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Ethereum investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from December 24.
Ethereum: Buy or sell? Read more here...
