The competitive landscape for obesity medications is undergoing a significant shift. Eli Lilly now confronts intensified rivalry following regulatory approval of a key competitor’s oral treatment, prompting investors to reassess the company’s lead in this high-growth sector, particularly regarding future pill-based formulations.
Solid Fundamentals Amidst Evolving Competition
Financially, Eli Lilly remains on strong footing. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, surpassing analyst expectations. This robust profitability provides the pharmaceutical giant with ample resources to continue advancing its development pipeline for GLP-1 therapies, even as competitive pressures mount temporarily.
The company’s own oral candidate, Orforglipron, remains central to its strategy. On December 18, Lilly released study data indicating that Orforglipron demonstrated superior weight maintenance results compared to existing therapies. This creates a compelling dynamic for the market: while a competitor may have a timing advantage, Eli Lilly is banking on potential benefits in efficacy and long-term weight control.
The Oral Formulation Race Intensifies
A pivotal development reshaping the market was the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy tablet on December 23. This move grants the Danish firm a clear first-mover advantage in the fiercely contested market for oral GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
This presents a strategic challenge for Eli Lilly. The market is anticipated to gradually shift from injectable treatments toward more convenient tablet forms over the medium term. Although Lilly is currently well-positioned with its injectable therapy, Zepbound, the ease of a pill sets a new patient-centric standard. This shift arrives before Lilly’s own oral candidate has received regulatory clearance.
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Technical Market Perspective and Timeline Pressures
From a technical analysis standpoint, the stock has significantly outperformed its long-term moving averages in recent months. The current share price, trading at €909.20, sits approximately 27% above its 200-day average and about 5% above its 50-day average. This underscores a prevailing upward trend while also signaling a valuation that already reflects high expectations. Notably, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a low 28.5, suggesting the stock is in a short-term oversold condition.
In the near term, this competitive advance has exerted pressure on the share price. The stock now trades roughly 5% below its 52-week high, yet it maintains a substantial year-to-date gain of nearly 20%.
The critical factor now is timing. Novo Nordisk’s commercial launch of its oral Wegovy pill is projected for January 2026. In contrast, key regulatory decisions concerning Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron are not expected until early 2026. This creates a potential window where its rival could exclusively benefit from the new oral delivery format.
Strategic Crossroads
In summary, Eli Lilly shares are positioned at a crossroads. The company is supported by a strong fundamental foundation of high earnings and a promising drug pipeline. However, it simultaneously faces noticeably heightened competition in the lucrative oral obesity drug segment. The future trajectory of the stock will likely hinge on how swiftly Lilly can navigate Orforglipron through the FDA’s approval process and whether its demonstrated clinical advantages can effectively translate into market success against the newly approved competing treatment.
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