Reports indicate that Nvidia is preparing a significant strategic shift concerning its business in China, drawing considerable attention from Wall Street observers. The semiconductor leader is reportedly set to resume exporting its high-performance artificial intelligence chips to China, leveraging a new waiver policy established by the Trump administration. This move, which unlocks the potential for billions in revenue, is simultaneously meeting with political resistance in Washington, where concerns persist about China’s technological advancement.
Analyst Sentiment Remains Upbeat
Despite the looming political challenges, the prevailing mood among financial analysts is optimistic. Firms including Bank of America and Bernstein have maintained their price targets, with some as high as $275, and have characterized current forecasts as conservative. Analysts at Jefferies have projected sustained earnings strength for the company extending into 2027.
The stock is currently trading at €155.34, positioning it approximately 13.5% below its 52-week peak. From a technical analysis perspective, the share price is contending with resistance near its 200-day moving average. Nevertheless, it has demonstrated resilience since the start of the year, posting a gain of more than 15%.
A Return Amidst Tariffs and Competition
Central to this development is the H200 AI chip, whose export to China was previously restricted under stringent embargoes. Utilizing the new waiver framework, Nvidia plans to deliver between 5,000 and 10,000 server modules—equating to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 individual chips—ahead of the Chinese New Year. Analyst estimates suggest this initial shipment could generate between $900 million and $3.2 billion in revenue, even after accounting for an applicable 25% tariff.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The H200 chip offers a performance leap, being about six times more powerful than its predecessor, the H20, which was originally engineered to comply with earlier sanction limits. For Nvidia, this initiative is largely defensive. The company aims to protect its estimated 71% market share for AI chips in China and prevent major clients such as Alibaba and ByteDance from permanently transitioning to domestic competitors like Huawei.
Political Scrutiny and Executive Transactions
This strategic reversal is attracting criticism from political figures in the United States. Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for transparency into the approval processes, citing fears that the technology could accelerate China’s military capabilities. Investors are advised to monitor whether the U.S. Congress will enact legislative measures to block the waiver provision.
Coinciding with the export news, activity was noted at the executive level. Director Mark A. Stevens divested shares worth approximately $40 million on December 19. While such transactions are frequently scheduled well in advance, their proximity to the stock’s 52-week high ensures they are closely scrutinized by the investment community.
Upcoming Catalyst: CES Keynote
The next significant event for market participants will be the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is scheduled to speak on January 5 and 6, 2026. The market anticipates concrete updates regarding product roadmaps for the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin series, alongside further details on the execution of the company’s China strategy.
Ad
Nvidia Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Nvidia Analysis from December 23 delivers the answer:
The latest Nvidia figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Nvidia investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from December 23.
Nvidia: Buy or sell? Read more here...
