Market participants entered the final quarter of 2025 with high hopes for XRP. The resolution of the protracted legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the November launch of spot ETFs in the United States created a seemingly bullish fundamental backdrop. Contrary to expectations, these milestones have failed to prevent a severe sell-off, driving the asset’s value down to a level not seen in the past twelve months.
Technical Indicators Signal Overwhelming Bearish Pressure
The chart presents a bleak picture for the digital asset as of December 21, 2025. XRP is currently trading at $1.81, marking its precise 52-week low. This price represents a decline of more than 40% from its yearly peak, which exceeded $3.00. The breach below the psychologically significant $2.00 threshold has triggered further technical selling. Key support levels have been unable to hold, and all major moving averages continue to point downward. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.8 places the asset in oversold territory—theoretically allowing for a potential rebound—the prevailing momentum remains firmly with sellers.
Market Reality Diverges from Positive Headlines
Analysts, including Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, had issued optimistic forecasts following the regulatory approval of spot ETFs. However, the anticipated institutional-driven rally has not materialized in the short term. Observers note that inflows into these new investment products have recently cooled. Current demand is insufficient to absorb the consistent selling pressure originating from the derivatives market and larger holders, often called “whales.”
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On-chain data reinforces this narrative of weakness. Addresses holding significant quantities of XRP have divested approximately 1.18 billion tokens over recent weeks. Historical patterns suggest this group often re-accumulates at lower prices, but distribution is currently the dominant activity.
Structural Supply and the Patience Game
Adding to the market’s challenge is the predictable supply side. Ripple’s monthly escrow releases consistently introduce new coins into circulation. While this process is transparent and scheduled, the market must continually absorb this additional liquidity, amounting to a net increase of roughly 300 million XRP each month.
As the year concludes, investors face a test of patience. The foundational outlook for XRP has undoubtedly strengthened, with regulatory clarity achieved and established ETF vehicles now in place. This sets a solid stage for potential long-term growth. The immediate focus, however, is on whether the current annual low can form a durable price floor or if the lack of sustained buying interest will lead to further declines in 2026.
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