Barrick Gold Corporation has successfully resolved its protracted dispute with Mali’s military government, regaining full operational control over the pivotal Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining complex. This settlement concludes a two-year standoff that had immobilized one of the company’s core production assets. The resolution coincides with a period of exceptional operational and stock market performance for the mining giant.
Stock Performance and Financial Momentum
Barrick’s equity has delivered an extraordinary performance in 2025, embarking on a rally that has seen its value surge by more than 145% since the start of the year. Shares closed at $44.73 on the NYSE this past Friday, marking a new 52-week high after a daily gain of 1.96%. On the Toronto exchange, the stock advanced 1.83% to C$61.62. This performance has significantly outpaced the broader gold mining sector, as tracked by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), with the stock trading well above its 12-month range of $15.11 to $43.08.
This investor confidence is reflected in institutional activity. Regulatory filings reveal that Perpetual Ltd. increased its stake by 0.7% during the third quarter of 2025. The firm now holds over 3 million Barrick shares, valued at approximately $100.56 million. Market observers interpret acquisitions at this price level as a signal of trust in the company’s balance sheet strength and future growth prospects.
The company’s robust financial health was underscored by its Q3 2025 results, released on November 10:
* Gold production: 829,000 ounces
* Copper production: 55,000 tonnes
* Revenue: $4.1 billion (a 23% year-over-year increase)
* Operating cash flow: A record $2.4 billion
* Free cash flow: $1.5 billion
* Earnings per share: $0.76 (net), $0.58 (adjusted)
Concurrently, Barrick raised its base quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.125 per share and expanded its share repurchase program by $500 million, authorizing buybacks of up to $1.5 billion.
Details of the Mali Resolution
According to an internal document cited by Reuters, Barrick has initiated the phased resumption of production at Loulo-Gounkoto, beginning with mandatory safety and operational training for employees and contractors.
The agreement, negotiated in November and confirmed on December 18, contains several key provisions:
* Payment to the State of Mali: Approximately 244 billion CFA francs (about $430 million) to settle retrospective tax claims and penalties.
* Gold Restitution: Return of roughly 3 tonnes of previously confiscated gold, worth an estimated $400 million.
* Legal Clearance: Discontinuation of all proceedings against company representatives and the release of four employees detained since November 2024.
* Mining License: A ten-year extension of the mining license, providing greater long-term planning certainty.
Conflict Background
The dispute originated from a revised mining code introduced in 2023 by Mali’s military government following its takeover. The new legislation substantially increased the state’s share of mining revenues and tightened regulations. In response, Barrick halted production at Loulo-Gounkoto in January 2025.
Tensions escalated when authorities, acting on a court order, used a military helicopter to seize three tonnes of gold. The bullion remained in a Bamako vault for nearly a year until a Malian judge ordered its return to Barrick last week.
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Loulo-Gounkoto is among Africa’s largest gold mines. Its 2024 output of approximately 723,000 ounces historically accounted for about 15% of Barrick’s attributable gold production.
Strategic Initiatives and Portfolio Management
On December 1, Barrick announced its board had tasked management with exploring a potential initial public offering (IPO) for a subsidiary housing core North American gold assets. This entity would hold interests in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the Fourmile discovery. Barrick would retain control following any listing.
In a related strategic shift, the company is streamlining its portfolio by divesting non-core mines and projects:
* Hemlo Gold Mine (Canada): Sale for up to $1.09 billion.
* Tongon Mine (Côte d’Ivoire): Sale for up to $305 million.
Combined with the sales of the Donlin and Alturas projects, Barrick expects gross proceeds of roughly $2.6 billion from these non-strategic divestments.
Analyst Fahad Tariq of Jefferies raised his price target on Barrick from $46 to $55 on December 7, reaffirming a “Buy” rating. He identified Barrick as a top pick among major gold producers, citing an estimated free cash flow yield of around 12% and multiple catalysts for growth and value realization.
Outlook and Precious Metals Context
Barrick reports it is on track to meet its full-year production targets for gold and copper, as well as its All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) forecast. The company aims for a 30% production growth by 2030, supported by key projects like the Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia and the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan.
Upcoming investor milestones include:
* Q4 2025 Earnings: Scheduled for release on February 17, 2026.
* Dividend: A payment of $0.175 per share, with a record date of November 28 and payment on December 15, 2025.
Broader gold price forecasts provide a favorable backdrop. Goldman Sachs projects the gold price could reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by sustained central bank purchases and tailwinds from expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. J.P. Morgan sees gold trending toward $5,000 by the end of 2026, with longer-term potential to reach $6,000 per ounce.
Conclusion: A Major Overhang Removed
The settlement in Mali eliminates a significant political and operational uncertainty for Barrick Gold. With full control restored at a key asset, the company can refocus entirely on executing its growth projects and the potential restructuring of its North American holdings. The combination of powerful cash flow generation, an increased dividend, ongoing share buybacks, and additional proceeds from asset sales provides the company with considerable financial and operational momentum heading into 2026 and its next earnings report.
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