Market experts are expressing growing confidence in GXO Logistics, as the supply chain specialist demonstrates resilience amid shifting economic conditions. This optimism is underpinned by strong recent earnings and a clarified forward-looking guidance, drawing increased attention from the institutional investment community.
Analyst Upgrades and Price Targets
A significant shift in analyst perspective has recently materialized. Goldman Sachs revised its rating on the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy,” concurrently lifting its price target substantially from $52.00 to $68.00. Truist Financial also established a target of $65.00.
The consensus view among research firms now stands at a “Moderate Buy” recommendation. The average price target across analysts is $62.69. Of the fourteen analysts providing coverage, eleven advocate a “Buy,” two suggest “Hold,” and only one advises “Sell.”
Financial Performance and Guidance
The company’s third-quarter results surpassed market expectations. Revenue advanced by 8% year-over-year to reach $3.40 billion, with earnings per share coming in at $0.79. The cornerstone of the current investment thesis, however, is the firm’s reaffirmed and refined full-year forecast.
For 2025, GXO Logistics anticipates adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.43 to $2.63. The elevation of its EBITDA outlook was even more pronounced; the projected bracket was raised to $865 million to $885 million. This transparent financial roadmap offers investors greater clarity regarding future profitability.
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Institutional Investment Activity
The landscape among major shareholders, who collectively control over 90% of the equity, presents a nuanced picture. While AXA S.A. decreased its holding by 16.5% in the second quarter, several other prominent asset managers significantly expanded their positions.
- During the first quarter of 2025, Orbis Allan Gray Ltd. and Dimensional Fund Advisors increased their stakes by 6.5% and 29.0%, respectively.
- The Vanguard Group Inc. and Kovitz Investment Group Partners LLC were also net buyers.
- This activity continued into Q2, with River Road Asset Management adding a further 5.4% to its portfolio.
These moves indicate a broadly positive, though not unanimous, sentiment among sophisticated investors.
Operational Stability and Share Performance
A key development for business continuity was the resolution of labor disputes. The company reached a new two-year collective bargaining agreement with its drivers in Motherwell. The deal includes provisions such as a retroactive pay increase, establishing operational certainty through 2027.
Year-to-date, GXO Logistics shares have climbed 21.6%, with the current price at $52.39. This leaves the stock trading 11.2% below its 52-week high of $59.00, recorded in December 2024. The confluence of upbeat analyst commentary, precise earnings guidance, and settled labor negotiations forms a sturdy foundation for the path ahead.
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