National Research Corporation presents investors with a complex puzzle. On one side, robust quarterly performance and a significant dividend hike paint a picture of fundamental health. On the other, recent share price weakness and bearish technical indicators signal near-term caution. The central question is whether shareholder returns can provide a floor for the stock.
Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
The company’s third-quarter 2025 results demonstrated underlying operational strength. Revenue reached $34.6 million, a 2% sequential increase. Its recurring revenue base, measured by Total Recurring Contract Value (TRCV), grew 8% year-over-year to $141.7 million, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
Profitability metrics were solid. GAAP net income was $4.1 million, representing a 12% margin. On an adjusted basis, net income came in at $5.0 million, or 14% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose 11% from the prior year to $10.9 million, a 31% margin. This translated to earnings per share of $0.18 (GAAP) and $0.23 (adjusted).
Reflecting this stability, the board approved a substantial 33% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.16 per share, up from $0.12. The ex-dividend date is set for Friday, December 26, 2025, with payment following on January 9, 2026. The company also remains active in returning capital via buybacks, repurchasing 618,264 shares in Q3 at a weighted average price of $14.99. For the full year 2025, combined dividends and share repurchases totaled $28.1 million returned to investors.
Conflicting Market Signals
Despite the fundamental positives, the market’s recent reaction has been tepid. As of December 8, the company’s market capitalization stood at $359.12 million, reflecting an 18.77% decline year-over-year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying National Research?
Trading activity has been volatile. In the previous session, shares gained 1.20% to close at $16.04, moving within a daily range of $15.70 to $16.11. However, this advance occurred on lower volume; trading activity fell by 26,000 shares to a total of 43,000 shares, valued at approximately $686,910. This divergence of rising price on falling volume often warrants attention. Furthermore, the stock declined in seven of the last ten trading days, shedding 7.39% over that period.
From a technical perspective, short-term indicators have turned negative, with a moving average generating a “Sell” signal. A pivot top identified on November 25 preceded a subsequent price decline of 10.99%. Longer-term technical signals, however, remain in “Buy” territory.
Strategic Initiatives and Forward Considerations
National Research continues to execute its strategic plan, recently forming a partnership with Mosaic Life Care in early December. This follows earlier collaborations with BJC HealthCare and North Mississippi Health Services, underscoring its focus on patient and employee experience solutions. The company also strengthened its leadership, appointing David Burik as Executive Vice President of Strategic Insights on November 20.
Key factors likely to influence the stock in the coming weeks include:
* The approaching ex-dividend and payment dates in late December and early January, which may impact short-term liquidity and demand.
* The continuation of TRCV growth and further share repurchases, which would bolster fundamental support.
* The persistence of near-term technical “Sell” signals and recent market cap contraction, which suggest ongoing downward pressure.
In summary, National Research finds itself in a tug-of-war. Strong recurring revenue growth, healthy profitability, and an enhanced capital return policy provide a solid foundation. Yet, the stock is currently grappling with technical headwinds and negative sentiment. Whether the increased dividend can halt the downtrend will largely depend on sustained TRCV expansion, continued capital returns, and a decisive recovery in trading volume.
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